Kaelon Black is a Committee Back for Indiana. Kaelon's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 159 plays — a developing rate for the RB.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the RB mean. Model correlation r≈0.52 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers
Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.22 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 0.76 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Indiana State.
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Car | Rush Yds | Avg | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsOld Dominion | W27-14 | 5.9 | 17 | 92 | 5.4 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.28 |
| 2 | vsKennesaw State | W56-9 | -5.4 | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.08 |
| 3 | vsIndiana State | W73-0 | — | 7 | 68 | 9.7 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.76 |
| 4 | vsIllinois | W63-10 | 12.9 | 10 | 89 | 8.9 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.55 |
| 5 | @Iowa | W20-15 | 19.7 | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 | — | — | — | -0.29 |
| 7 | @Oregon | W30-20 | 25.9 | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 | — | — | — | -0.19 |
| 8 | vsMichigan State | W38-13 | -3.4 | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.35 |
| 9 | vsUCLA | W56-6 | -8.7 | 10 | 70 | 7.0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | — |
| 10 | @Maryland | W55-10 | 0.6 | 14 | 110 | 7.9 | 1 | — | — | — | -0.02 |
| 11 | @Penn State | W27-24 | 18.1 | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 1 | — | — | — | -0.18 |
| 12 | vsWisconsin | W31-7 | -4.4 | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | -0.13 |
| 14 | @Purdue | W56-3 | -6.1 | 13 | 66 | 5.1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0.04 |
| 15 | vsOhio State | W13-10 | 30.1 | 16 | 69 | 4.3 | 0 | — | — | — | -0.19 |
| 1 | vsOregon | W56-22 | 25.9 | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 2 | — | — | — | 0.16 |
| 1 | vsAlabama | W38-3 | 14.8 | 15 | 99 | 6.6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0.16 |
| 1 | vsMiami | W27-21 | 20.7 | 17 | 79 | 4.6 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.16 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.03
- Passing downs
- 0.21
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.20 / 0.07
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).