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NFL Draft OutlookDay 2 (Rds 2–3)· model estimate based on position rank
Lexington Thomas is a Featured Back for UNLV. Lexington's 2017 season ranks in the 45th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 215 plays — a average rate for the RB.
2017 Production
Rushing
1336 Rush yards17 Rush TD211 Carries6.3 Yards/carry
Receiving
8 Receptions143 Rec yards0 Rec TD17.9 Yards/rec
Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs RB peers
Player type
Featured Back
The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.
Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)45th %ile · average
Game-to-game consistency66th %ile · average
Key findings
- ▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.27 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 0.96 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Idaho (SP+ -12).
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | Penn State | 2016 | 288 | 0.340 | 3.9 | 97.9 |
| Dalvin Cook | Florida State | 2016 | 292 | 0.340 | 4.3 | 99.3 |
| James Flanders | Tulsa | 2016 | 266 | 0.390 | 4.9 | 103.7 |
| Hassan Haskins | Michigan | 2021 | 280 | 0.380 | 4.8 | 106.4 |
| Travis Etienne | Clemson | 2019 | 213 | 0.470 | 4.7 | 100.1 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
EPA per play, by weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Car | Rush Yds | Avg | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsHoward | L40-43 | — | 21 | 151 | 7.2 | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 | 0.62 |
| 2 | @Idaho | W44-16 | -12.4 | 17 | 190 | 11.2 | 3 | — | — | — | 0.96 |
| 4 | @Ohio State | L21-54 | 30.9 | 12 | 84 | 7.0 | 2 | — | — | — | 0.46 |
| 5 | vsSan José State | W41-13 | -20.0 | 18 | 146 | 8.1 | 2 | — | — | — | 0.52 |
| 6 | vsSan Diego State | L10-41 | 4.5 | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0.04 |
| 7 | @Air Force | L30-34 | -11.0 | 17 | 91 | 5.4 | 1 | 1 | 47 | 0 | -0.03 |
| 8 | vsUtah State | L28-52 | -3.3 | 19 | 161 | 8.5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0.45 |
| 9 | @Fresno State | W26-16 | -2.7 | 20 | 88 | 4.4 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.14 |
| 10 | vsHawai'i | W31-23 | -19.7 | 24 | 98 | 4.1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | -0.00 |
| 11 | vsBYU | L21-31 | -7.4 | 16 | 83 | 5.2 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0.16 |
| 12 | @New Mexico | W38-35 | -12.4 | 18 | 127 | 7.1 | 2 | — | — | — | 0.47 |
| 13 | @Nevada | L16-23 | -16.4 | 15 | 63 | 4.2 | 0 | — | — | — | -0.26 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
Snap-share proxy
Overall
26.2%
Passing plays
3.4%
Rushing plays
41.8%
Standard downs
32.3%
Passing downs
12.5%
EPA by down type
- Standard downs
- 0.28
- Passing downs
- 0.33
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.79 / 0.26
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Per-game EPA5-game avg
2017 · 12 games
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.