#7Lucky Sutton
Lucky Sutton is a Featured Back for San Diego State. Lucky's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 232 plays — a developing rate for the RB.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the RB mean. Model correlation r≈0.52 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers
The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.18 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 0.40 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Washington State (SP+ 4).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | Penn State | 2016 | 288 | 0.340 | 3.9 | 97.9 |
| Dalvin Cook | Florida State | 2016 | 292 | 0.340 | 4.3 | 99.3 |
| Breece Hall | Iowa State | 2020 | 301 | 0.340 | 4.5 | 102.3 |
| Donnel Pumphrey | San Diego State | 2016 | 344 | 0.320 | 4.2 | 110.1 |
| Eno Benjamin | Arizona State | 2018 | 316 | 0.330 | 4.6 | 104.3 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Car | Rush Yds | Avg | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsStony Brook | W42-0 | — | 23 | 100 | 4.3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.30 |
| 2 | @Washington State | L13-36 | 3.8 | 15 | 88 | 5.9 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.40 |
| 4 | vsCalifornia | W34-0 | -3.2 | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.25 |
| 5 | @Northern Illinois | W6-3 | -16.7 | 17 | 88 | 5.2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.27 |
| 6 | vsColorado State | W45-24 | -15.6 | 21 | 113 | 5.4 | 2 | — | — | — | 0.34 |
| 7 | @Nevada | W44-10 | -13.4 | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.14 |
| 9 | @Fresno State | W23-0 | 1.8 | 21 | 131 | 6.2 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| 10 | vsWyoming | W24-7 | -11.3 | 28 | 158 | 5.6 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.09 |
| 11 | @Hawai'i | L6-38 | 1.7 | 18 | 78 | 4.3 | 0 | — | — | — | -0.05 |
| 12 | vsBoise State | W17-7 | 3.1 | 25 | 150 | 6.0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 0.34 |
| 13 | vsSan José State | W25-3 | -14.3 | 20 | 79 | 4.0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 0.09 |
| 14 | @New Mexico | L17-23 | 0.9 | 22 | 110 | 5.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 |
| 1 | vsNorth Texas | L47-49 | 13.8 | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0.11 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.23
- Passing downs
- 0.08
- Pass / Rush EPA
- -0.54 / 0.23
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).