Luke Altmyer is a Dual-Threat QB for Illinois. Luke's 2025 season ranks in the 10th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 380 plays — a developing rate for the QB.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the QB mean. Model correlation r≈0.46 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers
A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.29 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 0.90 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Purdue (SP+ -6).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | C/ATT | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | QBR | Rush Yds | Rush TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsWestern Illinois | W52-3 | — | 17/21 | 217 | 3 | 0 | 89.7 | -16 | 0 | 0.68 |
| 2 | @Duke | W45-19 | 6.6 | 22/31 | 296 | 3 | 0 | 85.9 | 4 | 0 | 0.61 |
| 3 | vsWestern Michigan | W38-0 | -1.4 | 17/26 | 196 | 2 | 0 | 51.1 | 0 | 1 | 0.36 |
| 4 | @Indiana | L10-63 | 32.4 | 14/22 | 146 | 1 | 0 | 42.9 | -27 | 0 | 0.00 |
| 5 | vsUSC | W34-32 | 16.9 | 20/26 | 328 | 2 | 0 | 97.5 | 28 | 1 | 0.89 |
| 6 | @Purdue | W43-27 | -6.1 | 19/22 | 390 | 1 | 0 | 90.9 | 3 | 0 | 0.90 |
| 7 | vsOhio State | L16-34 | 30.1 | 30/44 | 248 | 1 | 1 | 64.4 | -20 | 0 | 0.13 |
| 9 | @Washington | L25-42 | 18.4 | 22/34 | 199 | 2 | 2 | 83.5 | 48 | 0 | — |
| 10 | vsRutgers | W35-13 | 1.0 | 19/31 | 235 | 4 | 1 | 88.9 | 88 | 1 | 0.56 |
| 12 | vsMaryland | W24-6 | 0.6 | 15/25 | 172 | 2 | 1 | 80.5 | 62 | 0 | 0.28 |
| 13 | @Wisconsin | L10-27 | -4.4 | 21/35 | 248 | 0 | 0 | 66.0 | 20 | 1 | 0.19 |
| 14 | vsNorthwestern | W20-13 | 5.8 | 10/15 | 136 | 0 | 0 | 16.5 | -2 | 0 | 0.22 |
| 1 | vsTennessee | W30-28 | 15.0 | 20/33 | 196 | 1 | 0 | 69.9 | 54 | 1 | 0.15 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.27
- Passing downs
- 0.60
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.40 / 0.43
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).