Nate Sheppard is a Explosive Back for Duke. Nate's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 229 plays — a developing rate for the RB.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the RB mean. Model correlation r≈0.52 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers
Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.23 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 0.71 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Tulane (SP+ 6).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | Penn State | 2016 | 288 | 0.340 | 3.9 | 97.9 |
| Dalvin Cook | Florida State | 2016 | 292 | 0.340 | 4.3 | 99.3 |
| Breece Hall | Iowa State | 2020 | 301 | 0.340 | 4.5 | 102.3 |
| Donnel Pumphrey | San Diego State | 2016 | 344 | 0.320 | 4.2 | 110.1 |
| Eno Benjamin | Arizona State | 2018 | 316 | 0.330 | 4.6 | 104.3 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Car | Rush Yds | Avg | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsElon | W45-17 | — | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0.27 |
| 2 | vsIllinois | L19-45 | 12.9 | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 |
| 3 | @Tulane | L27-34 | 6.3 | 5 | 75 | 15.0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 0.71 |
| 4 | vsNC State | W45-33 | 4.8 | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0.10 |
| 5 | @Syracuse | W38-3 | -13.1 | 15 | 168 | 11.2 | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 0.63 |
| 6 | @California | W45-21 | -3.2 | 12 | 91 | 7.6 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0.39 |
| 8 | vsGeorgia Tech | L18-27 | 9.3 | 15 | 50 | 3.3 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 0 | -0.08 |
| 10 | @Clemson | W46-45 | 9.5 | 13 | 60 | 4.6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0.24 |
| 11 | @UConn | L34-37 | 5.1 | 16 | 100 | 6.3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -0.05 |
| 12 | vsVirginia | L17-34 | 11.1 | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | -0.13 |
| 13 | @North Carolina | W32-25 | -6.6 | 22 | 90 | 4.1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0 | -0.06 |
| 14 | vsWake Forest | W49-32 | 5.7 | 23 | 75 | 3.3 | 2 | 5 | 60 | 0 | 0.23 |
| 15 | vsVirginia | W27-20 | 11.1 | 21 | 97 | 4.6 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 0.09 |
| 1 | vsArizona State | W42-39 | 3.9 | 22 | 170 | 7.7 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 0.15 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.13
- Passing downs
- 0.28
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.43 / 0.10
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).