#22OJ Arnold
OJ Arnold is a Explosive Back for Georgia Southern. OJ's 2025 season ranks in the 38th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 146 plays — a developing rate for the RB.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the RB mean. Model correlation r≈0.52 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers
Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
- ▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.27 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 0.71 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Coastal Carolina (SP+ -15).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | Penn State | 2016 | 288 | 0.340 | 3.9 | 97.9 |
| Travis Etienne | Clemson | 2019 | 213 | 0.470 | 4.7 | 100.1 |
| Dalvin Cook | Florida State | 2016 | 292 | 0.340 | 4.3 | 99.3 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | LSU | 2019 | 216 | 0.490 | 5.0 | 105.8 |
| James Flanders | Tulsa | 2016 | 266 | 0.390 | 4.9 | 103.7 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Car | Rush Yds | Avg | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @Fresno State | L14-42 | 1.8 | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 | — | — | — | -0.10 |
| 2 | @USC | L20-59 | 16.9 | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -0.23 |
| 3 | vsJacksonville State | W41-34 | -6.7 | 16 | 128 | 8.0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0.38 |
| 4 | vsMaine | W45-17 | — | 13 | 85 | 6.5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0.41 |
| 5 | @James Madison | L10-35 | 12.3 | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | — | — | — | -0.27 |
| 7 | vsSouthern Miss | L35-38 | -7.1 | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.01 |
| 8 | vsGeorgia State | W41-24 | -24.5 | 12 | 74 | 6.2 | 0 | 4 | 85 | 0 | 0.69 |
| 9 | @Arkansas State | L24-34 | -8.8 | 14 | 73 | 5.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 11 | @App State | W25-23 | -11.4 | 20 | 105 | 5.3 | 0 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 0.22 |
| 12 | vsCoastal Carolina | W45-40 | -15.1 | 21 | 267 | 12.7 | 2 | 4 | 53 | 1 | 0.71 |
| 13 | vsOld Dominion | L10-45 | 5.9 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | -0.53 |
| 1 | vsApp State | W29-10 | -11.4 | 11 | 152 | 13.8 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0.44 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.25
- Passing downs
- 0.50
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.31 / 0.30
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).