Seth McGowan is a Featured Back for Kentucky. Seth's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 177 plays — a developing rate for the RB.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the RB mean. Model correlation r≈0.52 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers
The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.32 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 0.52 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Ole Miss (SP+ 24).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | Penn State | 2016 | 288 | 0.340 | 3.9 | 97.9 |
| Dalvin Cook | Florida State | 2016 | 292 | 0.340 | 4.3 | 99.3 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Car | Rush Yds | Avg | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsToledo | W24-16 | 6.0 | 18 | 78 | 4.3 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.12 |
| 2 | vsOle Miss | L23-30 | 24.0 | 15 | 93 | 6.2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0.52 |
| 3 | vsEastern Michigan | W48-23 | -14.7 | 18 | 104 | 5.8 | 3 | — | — | — | 0.32 |
| 5 | @South Carolina | L13-35 | 5.9 | 17 | 112 | 6.6 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.21 |
| 6 | @Georgia | L14-35 | 24.1 | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 0.03 |
| 8 | vsTexas | L13-16 | 16.2 | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 0 | 7 | 68 | 0 | 0.17 |
| 10 | @Auburn | W10-3 | 11.6 | 21 | 53 | 2.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -0.20 |
| 11 | vsFlorida | W38-7 | 3.5 | 22 | 92 | 4.2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0.13 |
| 12 | vsTennessee Tech | W42-10 | — | 17 | 72 | 4.2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0.12 |
| 13 | @Vanderbilt | L17-45 | 20.3 | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -0.34 |
| 14 | @Louisville | L0-41 | 12.4 | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | -0.11 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.09
- Passing downs
- 0.25
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.07 / 0.12
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).