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#15Tristian Gardner
Tristian Gardner is a Red Zone Weapon WR for Missouri State. Tristian's 2025 season produced 32.7 total EPA across 33 plays.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
6%
projected
band 2%'25 5%10%
Regressed toward the WR mean. Model correlation r≈0.47 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Receiving
30 Receptions465 Rec yards6 Rec TD15.5 Yards/rec
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
Player type
Red Zone Weapon WR
Goes from good to great inside the 20 — high TD conversion on limited looks makes this receiver a scoring machine.
Red zone targetHigh TD rateSize/catch radius advantage
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency73th %ile · average
Key findings
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 1.14 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 2.60 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs USC (SP+ 17).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Elite
Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
EPA per play, by weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @USC | L13-73 | 16.9 | 2 | 39 | 19.5 | 1 | 33 | 2.60 |
| 2 | @Marshall | W21-20 | -4.5 | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 | 18 | 1.49 |
| 3 | vsSMU | L10-28 | 13.4 | 2 | 39 | 19.5 | 0 | 32 | 0.64 |
| 4 | vsUT Martin | W42-10 | — | 2 | 44 | 22.0 | 0 | 35 | 0.92 |
| 5 | vsWestern Kentucky | L22-27 | 1.6 | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 1 | 14 | 1.85 |
| 7 | @Middle Tennessee | W22-20 | -16.0 | 3 | 70 | 23.3 | 0 | 42 | 2.17 |
| 9 | @New Mexico State | W24-17 | -15.5 | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 | 10 | — |
| 10 | vsFlorida International | W28-21 | -10.5 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.27 |
| 11 | @Liberty | W21-17 | -9.0 | 5 | 80 | 16.0 | 1 | 31 | 1.61 |
| 12 | vsUTEP | W38-24 | -17.5 | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 1 | 14 | 0.52 |
| 13 | @Kennesaw State | L34-41 | -5.4 | 2 | 53 | 26.5 | 2 | 34 | -0.75 |
| 14 | vsLouisiana Tech | L30-42 | -1.3 | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 | 27 | 1.24 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
Snap-share proxy
Overall
4.8%
Passing plays
8.9%
Rushing plays
0.0%
Standard downs
2.0%
Passing downs
10.1%
EPA by down type
- Standard downs
- 0.74
- Passing downs
- 1.07
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.99 / —
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).