Will Henderson III is a Explosive Back for UTSA. Will's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 127 plays — a developing rate for the RB.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the RB mean. Model correlation r≈0.52 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers
Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.22 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 1.69 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Rice (SP+ -15).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | Penn State | 2016 | 288 | 0.340 | 3.9 | 97.9 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Car | Rush Yds | Avg | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @Texas A&M | L24-42 | 20.7 | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0.07 |
| 2 | vsTexas State | L36-43 | 2.3 | 5 | 49 | 9.8 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 0.64 |
| 3 | vsIncarnate Word | W48-20 | — | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0.10 |
| 4 | @Colorado State | W17-16 | -15.6 | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -0.23 |
| 6 | @Temple | L21-27 | -5.1 | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0.05 |
| 7 | vsRice | W61-13 | -14.8 | 5 | 115 | 23.0 | 2 | — | — | — | 1.69 |
| 8 | @North Texas | L17-55 | 13.8 | 5 | 65 | 13.0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.63 |
| 10 | vsTulane | W48-26 | 6.3 | 12 | 52 | 4.3 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 1 | -0.08 |
| 11 | @South Florida | L23-55 | 11.6 | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0.16 |
| 12 | @Charlotte | W28-7 | -26.7 | 19 | 185 | 9.7 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0.28 |
| 13 | vsEast Carolina | W58-24 | 8.0 | 19 | 146 | 7.7 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 | -0.01 |
| 14 | vsArmy | L24-27 | 0.8 | 6 | 58 | 9.7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0.28 |
| 1 | vsFlorida International | W57-20 | -10.5 | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 1 | 0.35 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.11
- Passing downs
- 0.54
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.42 / 0.16
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).