Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech Prediction, Odds & Pick

Time TBD

Sam Houston

Conference USA· Elo 994

Time TBD

Texas Tech

Big 12· Elo 2056

Jones AT&T Stadium

Gridpex Model Prediction

Power rating (Elo)

TTU 2056

SHSU 994

Projected spread

TTU -52

incl. home edge

Model pick

TTU

100% to win

Market spread

—

sportsbook line

Model edge

None

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

100%

TTU (no market)

Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (TTU Elo 2056, SHSU Elo 994) plus home-field advantage. That projects TTU -52 (100% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Pregame Win Probability

Gridpex modelSHSU 0% · TTU 100%

Pick: TTU

Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.

Advanced Matchup — 2025

SHSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTTU

Offense

0.01

PPA / play

0.24

37%

Success rate

43%

1.24

Explosiveness

1.35

2.79

Pts / opportunity

4.00

66%

Power success

80%

Defense

0.22

PPA allowed / play

-0.09

48%

Success rate allowed

30%

1.24

Explosiveness allowed

1.17

14%

Havoc rate

23%

17%

Stuff rate

23%

Key matchups · Pro

SHSU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. TTU rush defense (-0.16 allowed) — edge SHSU.
TTU rush offense (0.17 PPA) vs. SHSU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge TTU.
TTU pass offense (0.35 PPA) vs. SHSU pass defense (0.36 allowed) — edge SHSU.

FAQ

Who will win Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech?

Gridpex's model favors Texas Tech with a 100% win probability.

What's the predicted spread for Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech?

The model projects Texas Tech by 52.0.

What time is Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech and what channel is it on?

Time TBD, at Jones AT&T Stadium.

Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.

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Gridiron IQ Model

Pinned · the model's take

I make this Texas Tech at 100% to win, projecting Texas Tech by 52.0.