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SMU vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sun, Nov 22, 12:30 AM
Notre Dame StadiumNBC
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ND 2243
SMU 1852
Projected spread
ND -15.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
ND
87% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
87%
ND (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ND Elo 2243, SMU Elo 1852) plus home-field advantage. That projects ND -15.5 (87% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelSMU 13% · ND 87%
Pick: ND
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
SMU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedND
Offense
0.23
PPA / play
0.3643%
Success rate
49%1.36
Explosiveness
1.443.89
Pts / opportunity
4.7979%
Power success
62%Defense
0.03
PPA allowed / play
0.0440%
Success rate allowed
36%1.18
Explosiveness allowed
1.2819%
Havoc rate
18%22%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- ND rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. SMU rush defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge ND.
- SMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. ND pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge SMU.
- ND pass offense (0.45 PPA) vs. SMU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge ND.
FAQ
Who will win SMU vs. Notre Dame?
Gridpex's model favors Notre Dame with a 87% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for SMU vs. Notre Dame?
The model projects Notre Dame by 15.5.
What time is SMU vs. Notre Dame and what channel is it on?
Sun, Nov 22, 12:30 AM on NBC, at Notre Dame Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Notre Dame at 87% to win, projecting Notre Dame by 15.5.