← All games
Michigan State vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 19, 11:30 PM
Notre Dame StadiumNBC
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ND 2243
MSU 1409
Projected spread
ND -32.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
ND
99% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
99%
ND (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ND Elo 2243, MSU Elo 1409) plus home-field advantage. That projects ND -32.7 (99% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMSU 1% · ND 99%
Pick: ND
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedND
Offense
0.12
PPA / play
0.3642%
Success rate
49%1.21
Explosiveness
1.443.75
Pts / opportunity
4.7965%
Power success
62%Defense
0.21
PPA allowed / play
0.0445%
Success rate allowed
36%1.18
Explosiveness allowed
1.2814%
Havoc rate
18%17%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- MSU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. ND pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge MSU.
- ND pass offense (0.45 PPA) vs. MSU pass defense (0.32 allowed) — edge ND.
- ND rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. MSU rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge ND.
FAQ
Who will win Michigan State vs. Notre Dame?
Gridpex's model favors Notre Dame with a 99% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Michigan State vs. Notre Dame?
The model projects Notre Dame by 32.7.
What time is Michigan State vs. Notre Dame and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 11:30 PM on NBC, at Notre Dame Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Notre Dame at 99% to win, projecting Notre Dame by 32.7.