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Ohio State vs. USC Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Los Angeles Memorial ColiseumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USC 1871
OSU 2138
Projected spread
USC +9.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
OSU
76% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
24%
USC (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (USC Elo 1871, OSU Elo 2138) plus home-field advantage. That projects USC +9.7 (24% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelOSU 76% · USC 24%
Pick: OSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
OSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUSC
Offense
0.31
PPA / play
0.3352%
Success rate
49%1.16
Explosiveness
1.324.83
Pts / opportunity
4.6673%
Power success
75%Defense
-0.02
PPA allowed / play
0.1634%
Success rate allowed
45%1.07
Explosiveness allowed
1.1716%
Havoc rate
16%23%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- USC pass offense (0.52 PPA) vs. OSU pass defense (0.05 allowed) — edge USC.
- OSU pass offense (0.54 PPA) vs. USC pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge OSU.
- USC rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. OSU rush defense (-0.09 allowed) — edge USC.
FAQ
Who will win Ohio State vs. USC?
Gridpex's model favors Ohio State with a 76% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Ohio State vs. USC?
The model projects Ohio State by 9.7.
What time is Ohio State vs. USC and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Ohio State at 76% to win, projecting Ohio State by 9.7.