Braden Pegan
Braden Pegan is a Versatile WR for Utah State. Braden's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 89 plays — a elite rate for the WR.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the WR mean. Model correlation r≈0.47 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.33 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 1.70 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Air Force (SP+ -3).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keytaon Thompson | Mississippi State | 2017 | 70 | 0.460 | 1.2 | 32.2 |
| DeAndre Hughes | Air Force | 2021 | 60 | 0.470 | 1.3 | 28.2 |
| Savion Williams | TCU | 2024 | 56 | 0.450 | 1.1 | 25.2 |
| Quadree Henderson | Pittsburgh | 2016 | 63 | 0.530 | 1.6 | 33.4 |
| Javion Posey | Florida Atlantic | 2020 | 53 | 0.450 | 1.4 | 23.8 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsUTEP | W28-16 | -17.5 | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 | 14 | 0.08 |
| 2 | @Texas A&M | L22-44 | 20.7 | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 1 | 16 | 0.07 |
| 3 | vsAir Force | W49-30 | -3.2 | 7 | 147 | 21.0 | 2 | 54 | 1.70 |
| 4 | vsMcNeese | W48-7 | — | 3 | 95 | 31.7 | 0 | 50 | 1.24 |
| 5 | @Vanderbilt | L35-55 | 20.3 | 7 | 66 | 9.4 | 1 | 19 | 0.41 |
| 7 | @Hawai'i | L26-44 | 1.7 | 3 | 84 | 28.0 | 0 | 53 | 0.56 |
| 8 | vsSan José State | W30-25 | -14.3 | 7 | 93 | 13.3 | 0 | 37 | 0.98 |
| 9 | @New Mexico | L14-33 | 0.9 | 5 | 108 | 21.6 | 1 | 54 | — |
| 11 | vsNevada | W51-14 | -13.4 | 3 | 56 | 18.7 | 0 | 43 | 0.14 |
| 12 | @UNLV | L26-29 | 4.3 | 8 | 109 | 13.6 | 0 | 30 | 0.31 |
| 13 | @Fresno State | W28-17 | 1.8 | 8 | 79 | 9.9 | 0 | 22 | 0.52 |
| 14 | vsBoise State | L24-25 | 3.1 | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 | 20 | -0.21 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.46
- Passing downs
- 0.63
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.53 / 0.25
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).