#7Carl Chester
Carl Chester is a Vertical Threat WR for Southern Miss. Carl's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 51 plays — a elite rate for the WR.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the WR mean. Model correlation r≈0.47 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
Elite deep receiver who stretches the field. Wins downfield, commands safety attention, and creates the threat that opens underneath routes.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.53 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 2.54 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Jacksonville State (SP+ -7).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Savion Williams | TCU | 2024 | 56 | 0.450 | 1.1 | 25.2 |
| DeAndre Hughes | Air Force | 2021 | 60 | 0.470 | 1.3 | 28.2 |
| Keytaon Thompson | Mississippi State | 2017 | 70 | 0.460 | 1.2 | 32.2 |
| Quadree Henderson | Pittsburgh | 2016 | 63 | 0.530 | 1.6 | 33.4 |
| Dane Kinamon | Air Force | 2021 | 39 | 0.410 | 0.7 | 16.0 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsMississippi State | L17-34 | 4.1 | 5 | 52 | 10.4 | 0 | 22 | 0.41 |
| 2 | vsJackson State | W38-20 | — | 3 | 40 | 13.3 | 0 | 23 | 0.28 |
| 4 | @Louisiana Tech | L20-30 | -1.3 | 4 | 118 | 29.5 | 0 | 42 | 1.03 |
| 5 | vsJacksonville State | W42-25 | -6.7 | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 1 | 13 | 2.54 |
| 7 | @Georgia Southern | W38-35 | -9.4 | 2 | 43 | 21.5 | 1 | 30 | 0.71 |
| 8 | @Louisiana | W22-10 | -10.1 | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 5 | 0.08 |
| 9 | vsUL Monroe | W49-21 | -21.6 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 1 | 8 | — |
| 11 | @Arkansas State | W27-21 | -8.8 | 1 | 35 | 35.0 | 0 | 35 | 0.01 |
| 12 | vsTexas State | L14-41 | 2.3 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 10 | -0.43 |
| 13 | @South Alabama | L35-42 | -12.7 | 5 | 128 | 25.6 | 2 | 52 | 0.56 |
| 14 | vsTroy | L18-28 | -4.8 | 4 | 76 | 19.0 | 1 | 30 | 1.04 |
| 1 | vsWestern Kentucky | L16-27 | 1.6 | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 | 19 | 0.37 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.42
- Passing downs
- 0.70
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.53 / —
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).