#13Chase Penry
Chase Penry is a Slot Specialist WR for Boise State. Chase's 2025 season produced 28.0 total EPA across 33 plays.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the WR mean. Model correlation r≈0.47 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.19 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 1.79 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Air Force (SP+ -3).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quadree Henderson | Pittsburgh | 2016 | 63 | 0.530 | 1.6 | 33.4 |
| DeAndre Hughes | Air Force | 2021 | 60 | 0.470 | 1.3 | 28.2 |
| Keytaon Thompson | Mississippi State | 2017 | 70 | 0.460 | 1.2 | 32.2 |
| Savion Williams | TCU | 2024 | 56 | 0.450 | 1.1 | 25.2 |
| Javion Posey | Florida Atlantic | 2020 | 53 | 0.450 | 1.4 | 23.8 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @South Florida | L7-34 | 11.6 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 | 0.71 |
| 4 | @Air Force | W49-37 | -3.2 | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 | 17 | 1.79 |
| 6 | @Notre Dame | L7-28 | 24.4 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 | 0.43 |
| 8 | vsUNLV | W56-31 | 4.3 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 | -0.01 |
| 9 | @Nevada | W24-3 | -13.4 | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 | 15 | — |
| 10 | vsFresno State | L7-30 | 1.8 | 5 | 44 | 8.8 | 1 | 12 | 0.35 |
| 12 | @San Diego State | L7-17 | 6.7 | 3 | 50 | 16.7 | 0 | 19 | 0.88 |
| 13 | vsColorado State | W49-21 | -15.6 | 3 | 44 | 14.7 | 0 | 21 | 1.42 |
| 14 | @Utah State | W25-24 | -3.1 | 6 | 56 | 9.3 | 0 | 14 | 0.82 |
| 15 | vsUNLV | W38-21 | 4.3 | 3 | 96 | 32.0 | 0 | 46 | 1.33 |
| 1 | vsWashington | L10-38 | 18.4 | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 | 21 | 0.14 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.10
- Passing downs
- 1.40
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.85 / —
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).