Davion Dozier is a Vertical Threat WR for App State. Davion's 2025 season produced 30.6 total EPA across 34 plays.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the WR mean. Model correlation r≈0.47 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
Elite deep receiver who stretches the field. Wins downfield, commands safety attention, and creates the threat that opens underneath routes.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Peak game: 2.03 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Oregon State (SP+ -16).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quadree Henderson | Pittsburgh | 2016 | 63 | 0.530 | 1.6 | 33.4 |
| DeAndre Hughes | Air Force | 2021 | 60 | 0.470 | 1.3 | 28.2 |
| Keytaon Thompson | Mississippi State | 2017 | 70 | 0.460 | 1.2 | 32.2 |
| Savion Williams | TCU | 2024 | 56 | 0.450 | 1.1 | 25.2 |
| Javion Posey | Florida Atlantic | 2020 | 53 | 0.450 | 1.4 | 23.8 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | vsOregon State | W27-23 | -15.9 | 4 | 140 | 35.0 | 1 | 68 | 2.03 |
| 7 | @Georgia State | W41-20 | -24.5 | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 1 | 18 | 0.29 |
| 8 | vsCoastal Carolina | L37-45 | -15.1 | 4 | 70 | 17.5 | 1 | 35 | 0.63 |
| 9 | @Old Dominion | L21-24 | 5.9 | 4 | 75 | 18.8 | 1 | 34 | — |
| 11 | vsGeorgia Southern | L23-25 | -9.4 | 3 | 62 | 20.7 | 0 | 36 | 1.59 |
| 12 | @James Madison | L10-58 | 12.3 | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 1 | 19 | 0.93 |
| 13 | vsMarshall | W26-24 | -4.5 | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 | 21 | 0.23 |
| 14 | vsArkansas State | L29-30 | -8.8 | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 0 | 31 | 1.14 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.75
- Passing downs
- 0.97
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.90 / —
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).