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Dillon Gabriel

#8Dillon Gabriel

Line value
16.1 pts
NFL Draft Outlook1st Round· model estimate based on position rank

Dillon Gabriel is a 4-year Dual-Threat QB for Oklahoma. Dillon's 2023 season ranks in the 95th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 414 plays — a elite rate for the QB. Dillon's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

2023 Production

Passing
266/384 Comp/Att3660 Pass yards30 Pass TD6 INT69.3% Comp %
Rushing
373 Rush yards12 Rush TD93 Carries4.0 Yards/carry
Punting
1 Punts37 Punt yards37.0 Yards/punt37 Long1 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

EfficiencyVolumeDual-ThreatConsistencyClutch
Player type
Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)95th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg
Career trajectory:↑ Rising
Key findings
  • Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
  • Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
  • High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • 8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • Production faded as the season progressed — 0.11 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • Peak game: 1.47 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs West Virginia (SP+ 8).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

PlayerTeamYrPlaysWEPA/playLine valTotal EPA
Blake SimsAlabama20144730.69615.4329.4
Jayden DanielsLSU20234610.78317.5360.8
C.J. StroudOhio State20224760.74617.5355.2
Kaidon SalterLiberty20234860.71114.7345.6
Malik CunninghamLouisville20215020.68114.7341.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

Wk 1 vs Arkansas State: +0.99 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs SMU: +0.68 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Tulsa: +1.19 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Cincinnati: +0.37 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Iowa State: +0.90 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Texas: +0.35 EPA/play6Wk 8 vs UCF: +0.12 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Kansas: +0.42 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs Oklahoma State: +0.32 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs West Virginia: +1.47 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs BYU: +0.43 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs TCU: +1.07 EPA/play13
EPA per play, by weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+C/ATTPass YdsPass TDINTQBRRush YdsRush TDEPA/play
1vsArkansas StateW73-0-6.319/223082096.41510.99
2vsSMUW28-1110.119/271764068.82000.68
3@TulsaW66-17-13.728/314215198.41.19
4@CincinnatiW20-6-6.826/383221070.32310.37
5vsIowa StateW50-207.526/393663196.83720.90
6vsTexasW34-3023.223/382851092.811310.35
8vsUCFW31-293.425/382533165.52200.12
9@KansasL33-389.914/191710160.16430.42
10@Oklahoma StateL24-276.726/373441169.1-700.32
11vsWest VirginiaW59-207.523/364235096.95031.47
12@BYUW31-24-3.313/211912086.7000.43
13vsTCUW69-457.924/384003197.53611.07

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
49.9%
Passing plays
87.7%
Rushing plays
16.4%
Standard downs
45.3%
Passing downs
61.7%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.52
Passing downs
0.88
Pass / Rush EPA
0.68 / 0.47

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg
202020232024
2019 — 2024 · 49 games
SeasonTeamLine valueWEPA/playYoY ΔTotal EPA
2019UCF
9.9
0.535260.8
2020UCF
16.9
0.618+0.08312.7
2023Oklahoma
16.1
0.732+0.11346.4
2024Oregon
11.6
0.581-0.15292.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.