Joey Aguilar is a Dual-Threat QB for Tennessee. Joey's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 424 plays — a developing rate for the QB.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the QB mean. Model correlation r≈0.46 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers
A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.25 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 0.55 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs East Tennessee State.
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | C/ATT | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | QBR | Rush Yds | Rush TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsSyracuse | W45-26 | -13.1 | 16/28 | 247 | 3 | 0 | 62.3 | 34 | 0 | 0.55 |
| 2 | vsEast Tennessee State | W72-17 | — | 23/31 | 288 | 2 | 0 | 74.4 | — | — | 0.55 |
| 3 | vsGeorgia | L41-44 | 24.1 | 24/36 | 371 | 4 | 2 | 85.9 | -8 | 1 | 0.53 |
| 4 | vsUAB | W56-24 | -15.8 | 15/22 | 218 | 3 | 1 | 59.4 | 11 | 0 | 0.51 |
| 5 | @Mississippi State | W41-34 | 4.1 | 24/40 | 335 | 1 | 2 | 67.7 | 21 | 1 | 0.50 |
| 7 | vsArkansas | W34-31 | 5.1 | 16/25 | 221 | 1 | 0 | 74.9 | 59 | 0 | 0.51 |
| 8 | @Alabama | L20-37 | 14.8 | 28/44 | 268 | 1 | 1 | 61.6 | -20 | 0 | 0.16 |
| 9 | @Kentucky | W56-34 | 1.8 | 20/26 | 396 | 3 | 0 | 95.3 | -6 | 0 | — |
| 10 | vsOklahoma | L27-33 | 18.3 | 29/45 | 393 | 3 | 2 | 74.3 | -6 | 0 | 0.23 |
| 12 | vsNew Mexico State | W42-9 | -15.5 | 17/23 | 204 | 1 | 2 | 76.0 | 34 | 1 | 0.23 |
| 13 | @Florida | W31-11 | 3.5 | 17/22 | 204 | 1 | 0 | 94.9 | 0 | 0 | 0.45 |
| 14 | vsVanderbilt | L24-45 | 20.3 | 29/44 | 299 | 1 | 0 | 65.6 | -15 | 0 | 0.19 |
| 1 | vsIllinois | L28-30 | 12.9 | 14/18 | 121 | 0 | 0 | 64.4 | -3 | 1 | 0.26 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.29
- Passing downs
- 0.52
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.38 / 0.30
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.