John Mateer is a Clutch Passer for Oklahoma. John's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 522 plays — a developing rate for the QB.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the QB mean. Model correlation r≈0.46 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers
Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.24 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 0.66 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Illinois State.
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | C/ATT | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | QBR | Rush Yds | Rush TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsIllinois State | W35-3 | — | 30/37 | 392 | 3 | 1 | 80.0 | 24 | 1 | 0.66 |
| 2 | vsMichigan | W24-13 | 12.4 | 21/34 | 270 | 1 | 1 | 79.2 | 74 | 2 | 0.35 |
| 3 | @Temple | W42-3 | -5.1 | 20/34 | 282 | 1 | 1 | 72.4 | 63 | 1 | 0.39 |
| 4 | vsAuburn | W24-17 | 11.6 | 24/36 | 271 | 1 | 0 | 65.8 | 29 | 1 | 0.30 |
| 7 | vsTexas | L6-23 | 16.2 | 20/38 | 202 | 0 | 3 | 42.8 | 5 | 0 | -0.07 |
| 8 | @South Carolina | W26-7 | 5.9 | 18/26 | 150 | 1 | 0 | 87.5 | 14 | 0 | 0.35 |
| 9 | vsOle Miss | L26-34 | 24.0 | 17/31 | 223 | 1 | 0 | 45.1 | 17 | 0 | -0.02 |
| 10 | @Tennessee | W33-27 | 15.0 | 19/29 | 159 | 0 | 1 | 72.3 | 80 | 1 | 0.11 |
| 12 | @Alabama | W23-21 | 14.8 | 15/23 | 138 | 0 | 0 | 71.7 | 23 | 1 | 0.16 |
| 13 | vsMissouri | W17-6 | 14.4 | 14/30 | 173 | 2 | 0 | 67.6 | 60 | 0 | -0.17 |
| 14 | vsLSU | W17-13 | 10.3 | 23/38 | 318 | 2 | 3 | 54.0 | 27 | 0 | 0.27 |
| 1 | vsAlabama | L24-34 | 14.8 | 26/41 | 307 | 2 | 1 | 72.3 | 15 | 1 | 0.17 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.08
- Passing downs
- 0.33
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.20 / 0.15
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.