Justin Joly is a Versatile TE for NC State. Justin's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 53 plays — a elite rate for the TE.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the TE mean. Model correlation r≈0.42 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs TE peers
Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Peak game: 1.68 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Campbell.
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · TE · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Thompson | Tulane | 2024 | 48 | 0.420 | 0.4 | 20.2 |
| Seth Green | Minnesota | 2018 | 83 | 0.390 | 0.0 | 32.4 |
| Johnny Langan | Rutgers | 2020 | 59 | 0.300 | 0.0 | 17.7 |
| Evan Svoboda | Wyoming | 2024 | 75 | 0.290 | 0.0 | 21.8 |
| Jordan Myers | Rice | 2021 | 59 | 0.270 | 0.2 | 15.9 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsEast Carolina | W24-17 | 8.0 | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 | 9 | -0.01 |
| 2 | vsVirginia | W35-31 | 11.1 | 4 | 41 | 10.3 | 0 | 21 | -0.13 |
| 3 | @Wake Forest | W34-24 | 5.7 | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 2 | 8 | 1.59 |
| 4 | @Duke | L33-45 | 6.6 | 5 | 63 | 12.6 | 0 | 18 | 0.24 |
| 5 | vsVirginia Tech | L21-23 | -10.1 | 6 | 60 | 10.0 | 0 | 22 | 0.04 |
| 6 | vsCampbell | W56-10 | — | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 1 | 15 | 1.68 |
| 7 | @Notre Dame | L7-36 | 24.4 | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 6 | 0.31 |
| 9 | @Pittsburgh | L34-53 | 8.4 | 6 | 101 | 16.8 | 2 | 59 | — |
| 12 | @Miami | L7-41 | 20.7 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 | -0.18 |
| 13 | vsFlorida State | W21-11 | 7.2 | 5 | 66 | 13.2 | 1 | 27 | 1.51 |
| 14 | vsNorth Carolina | W42-19 | -6.6 | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 1 | 19 | 0.14 |
| 1 | vsMemphis | W31-7 | 7.6 | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 | 17 | 1.30 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.47
- Passing downs
- 0.34
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.42 / —
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).