#7Lincoln Pare
Lincoln Pare is a Featured Back for Texas State. Lincoln's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 228 plays — a developing rate for the RB.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the RB mean. Model correlation r≈0.52 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers
The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.27 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 1.12 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Eastern Michigan (SP+ -15).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | Penn State | 2016 | 288 | 0.340 | 3.9 | 97.9 |
| Dalvin Cook | Florida State | 2016 | 292 | 0.340 | 4.3 | 99.3 |
| Breece Hall | Iowa State | 2020 | 301 | 0.340 | 4.5 | 102.3 |
| Donnel Pumphrey | San Diego State | 2016 | 344 | 0.320 | 4.2 | 110.1 |
| Eno Benjamin | Arizona State | 2018 | 316 | 0.330 | 4.6 | 104.3 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Car | Rush Yds | Avg | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsEastern Michigan | W52-27 | -14.7 | 12 | 167 | 13.9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 1.12 |
| 2 | @UTSA | W43-36 | 3.7 | 21 | 71 | 3.4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0.09 |
| 3 | @Arizona State | L15-34 | 3.9 | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 0 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 0.34 |
| 4 | vsNicholls | W35-3 | — | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0.19 |
| 6 | @Arkansas State | L30-31 | -8.8 | 21 | 105 | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 | 0.18 |
| 7 | vsTroy | L41-48 | -4.8 | 22 | 113 | 5.1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0.38 |
| 8 | @Marshall | L37-40 | -4.5 | 14 | 27 | 1.9 | 1 | 5 | 44 | 0 | -0.14 |
| 10 | vsJames Madison | L20-52 | 12.3 | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | -0.21 |
| 11 | @Louisiana | L39-42 | -10.1 | 10 | 89 | 8.9 | 1 | 7 | 50 | 0 | 0.29 |
| 12 | @Southern Miss | W41-14 | -7.1 | 21 | 118 | 5.6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0.16 |
| 13 | vsUL Monroe | W31-14 | -21.6 | 19 | 76 | 4.0 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 1 | 0.12 |
| 14 | vsSouth Alabama | W49-26 | -12.7 | 20 | 92 | 4.6 | 0 | 4 | 40 | 1 | 0.04 |
| 1 | vsRice | W41-10 | -14.8 | 11 | 106 | 9.6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0.27 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.19
- Passing downs
- 0.18
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.23 / 0.18
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).