Noah Rogers is a Slot Specialist WR for NC State. Noah's 2025 season produced 29.6 total EPA across 39 plays.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the WR mean. Model correlation r≈0.47 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.75 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 1.48 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Wake Forest (SP+ 6).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quadree Henderson | Pittsburgh | 2016 | 63 | 0.530 | 1.6 | 33.4 |
| DeAndre Hughes | Air Force | 2021 | 60 | 0.470 | 1.3 | 28.2 |
| Keytaon Thompson | Mississippi State | 2017 | 70 | 0.460 | 1.2 | 32.2 |
| Savion Williams | TCU | 2024 | 56 | 0.450 | 1.1 | 25.2 |
| Javion Posey | Florida Atlantic | 2020 | 53 | 0.450 | 1.4 | 23.8 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsEast Carolina | W24-17 | 8.0 | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | 10 | 0.54 |
| 2 | vsVirginia | W35-31 | 11.1 | 2 | 38 | 19.0 | 1 | 27 | 0.56 |
| 3 | @Wake Forest | W34-24 | 5.7 | 4 | 52 | 13.0 | 0 | 20 | 1.48 |
| 4 | @Duke | L33-45 | 6.6 | 3 | 48 | 16.0 | 0 | 25 | 1.46 |
| 5 | vsVirginia Tech | L21-23 | -10.1 | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 | 16 | 0.70 |
| 6 | vsCampbell | W56-10 | — | 3 | 62 | 20.7 | 0 | 48 | 0.95 |
| 9 | @Pittsburgh | L34-53 | 8.4 | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 1 | 15 | — |
| 10 | vsGeorgia Tech | W48-36 | 9.3 | 7 | 72 | 10.3 | 0 | 17 | 0.71 |
| 12 | @Miami | L7-41 | 20.7 | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 7 | 0.03 |
| 14 | vsNorth Carolina | W42-19 | -6.6 | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 | 24 | -0.23 |
| 1 | vsMemphis | W31-7 | 7.6 | 2 | 37 | 18.5 | 0 | 21 | 0.27 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.15
- Passing downs
- 1.47
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.76 / —
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).