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Riley Leonard

#13Riley Leonard

Line value
6.4 pts
NFL Draft OutlookDay 3 (Rds 4–7)· model estimate based on position rank

Riley Leonard is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Duke. Riley's 2022 season ranks in the 15th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 497 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

2022 Production

Passing
250/391 Comp/Att2967 Pass yards20 Pass TD6 INT63.9% Comp %
Rushing
698 Rush yards13 Rush TD124 Carries5.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs QB peers

EfficiencyVolumeDual-ThreatConsistencyClutch
Player type
Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)15th %ile · below avg
Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
  • High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
  • High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • 6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • Production faded as the season progressed — 0.10 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • Peak game: 1.21 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs North Carolina A&T.

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗
Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

Wk 1 vs Temple: +0.53 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Northwestern: +0.15 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs North Carolina A&T: +1.21 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Kansas: +0.29 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Virginia: +0.54 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Georgia Tech: +0.02 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs North Carolina: +0.48 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Miami: +0.25 EPA/play8Wk 10 vs Boston College: +0.19 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs Virginia Tech: +0.52 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs Pittsburgh: +0.11 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Wake Forest: +0.68 EPA/play13Wk 1 vs UCF: +0.35 EPA/play1
EPA per play, by weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+C/ATTPass YdsPass TDINTQBRRush YdsRush TDEPA/play
1vsTempleW30-0-12.924/303282081.66400.53
2@NorthwesternW31-23-13.413/242401152.01700.15
3vsNorth Carolina A&TW49-2011/121552198.96621.21
4@KansasL27-352.924/353241050.75400.29
5vsVirginiaW38-17-9.018/241291085.25920.54
6@Georgia TechL20-23-11.820/411361147.62900.02
7vsNorth CarolinaL35-387.820/312451179.213010.48
8@MiamiW45-21-2.713/251361077.16130.25
10@Boston CollegeW38-31-14.916/241581083.39610.19
11vsVirginia TechW24-7-9.519/312622182.34810.52
12@PittsburghL26-288.624/452903037.6-410.11
13vsWake ForestW34-318.229/413914177.31500.68
1vsUCFW30-1310.319/28173006320.35

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
58.9%
Passing plays
97.0%
Rushing plays
24.7%
Standard downs
54.7%
Passing downs
68.4%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.21
Passing downs
0.67
Pass / Rush EPA
0.31 / 0.65

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg
2024
2022 — 2024 · 29 games
SeasonTeamLine valueWEPA/playYoY ΔTotal EPA
2022Duke
6.4
0.429222.1
2024Notre Dame
8.2
0.468+0.04296.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.