TJ Harden is a Committee Back for SMU. TJ's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 160 plays — a developing rate for the RB.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the RB mean. Model correlation r≈0.52 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers
Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸Peak game: 0.39 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Missouri State (SP+ -11).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | Penn State | 2016 | 288 | 0.340 | 3.9 | 97.9 |
| Dalvin Cook | Florida State | 2016 | 292 | 0.340 | 4.3 | 99.3 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Car | Rush Yds | Avg | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsEast Texas A&M | W42-13 | — | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.29 |
| 2 | vsBaylor | L45-48 | 1.4 | 19 | 115 | 6.1 | 3 | 2 | -7 | 0 | 0.24 |
| 3 | @Missouri State | W28-10 | -10.7 | 15 | 96 | 6.4 | 2 | — | — | — | 0.39 |
| 4 | @TCU | L24-35 | 8.3 | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 0.13 |
| 6 | vsSyracuse | W31-18 | -13.1 | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 0 | — | — | — | -0.06 |
| 7 | vsStanford | W34-10 | -11.8 | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 | — | — | — | -0.05 |
| 8 | @Clemson | W35-24 | 9.5 | 11 | 16 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | -0.06 |
| 9 | @Wake Forest | L12-13 | 5.7 | 13 | 25 | 1.9 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 0 | — |
| 10 | vsMiami | W26-20 | 20.7 | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0.14 |
| 11 | @Boston College | W45-13 | -8.5 | 16 | 130 | 8.1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 0.31 |
| 13 | vsLouisville | W38-6 | 12.4 | 18 | 90 | 5.0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0.05 |
| 14 | @California | L35-38 | -3.2 | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 0.24 |
| 1 | vsArizona | W24-19 | 12.0 | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 2 | — | — | — | 0.39 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.14
- Passing downs
- 0.17
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.13 / 0.15
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).