Missouri State Bears
Conference USA··0-0
0 followers
Elo
1328
#97
SP+
-10.7
#108
O77/D118
FPI
-11.5
SRS
-8.8
AP
NR
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 11 to play4.6 – 6.4
projected final record (now 0–0)
Exp. wins left
4.6
of 11 games
Bowl odds
25%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
88%
vs Sam Houston
Toughest
4%
vs Texas A&M
💬Missouri State Board
Show discussion →Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Offense
Total yards / game
393.4#64
Yards / play
6.0#39
Passing yards / game
279.7#16
Rushing yards / game
113.7#118
First downs / game
20.5#67
3rd down %
36.3%#101
4th down %
61.5%#31
Time of possession
31:21#32
Defense
Yards allowed / game
383.8#78
Yards / play allowed
5.9#99
Pass yards allowed / game
229.5#88
Rush yards allowed / game
154.3#76
3rd down % allowed
40.2%#82
Sacks
24#76
Tackles for loss
53#120
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
-3#86
Takeaways
15#73
Giveaways
18#86
Penalties / game
7.6#126
Penalty yards / game
66.5#124
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Advanced analytics
Opponent-adjusted advanced stats aren't available for 2026 yet — they populate a few weeks into the season.
Schedule & Results
Wk 1@
Texas A&MSat+24.24%Wk 2vsLindenwoodSatWk 3vs
MarshallSat+3.241%Wk 4@
SMUSat+23.44%Wk 6@
Western KentuckyThu+5.634%Wk 7vs
Kennesaw StateWed-3.159%Wk 8@
DelawareTue+3.540%Wk 9vs
Sam HoustonWed-15.888%Wk 10@
Florida InternationalSat+2.243%Wk 11vs
New Mexico StateSat-8.674%Wk 12@
Jacksonville StateSat+8.925%Wk 13vs
LibertySat+2.144%
Texas A&MSat+24.24%Wk 2vsLindenwoodSatWk 3vsMarshallSat+3.241%Wk 4@SMUSat+23.44%Wk 6@Western KentuckyThu+5.634%Wk 7vsKennesaw StateWed-3.159%Wk 8@DelawareTue+3.540%Wk 9vsSam HoustonWed-15.888%Wk 10@Florida InternationalSat+2.243%Wk 11vsNew Mexico StateSat-8.674%Wk 12@Jacksonville StateSat+8.925%Wk 13vsLibertySat+2.144%2026 Recruiting Class
Commits
11
Avg stars
2.91
Avg rating
0.8305
10 3★
| Recruit | Pos | Stars | Rtg | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aiden Parker#1500 nat'l | EDGE | ★★★★★ | 0.8600 | Auburn, AL |
| Josiah Turner#1589 nat'l | S | ★★★★★ | 0.8500 | Forney, TX |
| Chase Mideau#2313 nat'l | IOL | ★★★★★ | 0.8400 | Douglasville, GA |
| Jerrick Martin#2313 nat'l | WR | ★★★★★ | 0.8400 | Glasgow, KY |
| Brett Ottensmeyer#2524 nat'l | QB | ★★★★★ | 0.8350 | Ballwin, MO |
| Santiago Castillo#2620 nat'l | OT | ★★★★★ | 0.8300 | St. Louis, MO |
| Julius Dumas#2620 nat'l | IOL | ★★★★★ | 0.8300 | Douglasville, GA |
| Amar'e Johnson#2620 nat'l | RB | ★★★★★ | 0.8300 | Orlando, FL |
| Jedrick Russell Jr.#2620 nat'l | LB | ★★★★★ | 0.8300 | Grand Prairie, TX |
| Brandon Hightower#2979 nat'l | DL | ★★★★★ | 0.8100 | Dallas, TX |
| Cameron Gray#3106 nat'l | DL | ★★★★★ | 0.7800 | Arlington, TX |
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 5.3 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 8-4 | 6-2 | 67% | 7.1 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 36% | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| 2022 | 5-6 | 3-5 | 45% | 3.3 | +1.7 |
| 2021 | 8-4 | 6-2 | 67% | 0.1 | +7.9 |
| 2020 | 5-5 | 5-2 | 50% | 0.0 | +5.0 |
| 2019 | 1-10 | 1-7 | 9% | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 4-7 | 2-6 | 36% | 0.0 | +4.0 |
| 2017 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 27% | 0.0 | +3.0 |
| 2016 | 4-7 | 2-6 | 36% | 0.0 | +4.0 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).