Ashtyn Hawkins is a Slot Specialist WR for Baylor. Ashtyn's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 74 plays — a elite rate for the WR.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the WR mean. Model correlation r≈0.47 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.76 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 2.65 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Arizona (SP+ 12).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keytaon Thompson | Mississippi State | 2017 | 70 | 0.460 | 1.2 | 32.2 |
| Savion Williams | TCU | 2024 | 56 | 0.450 | 1.1 | 25.2 |
| DeAndre Hughes | Air Force | 2021 | 60 | 0.470 | 1.3 | 28.2 |
| Dane Kinamon | Air Force | 2021 | 39 | 0.410 | 0.7 | 16.0 |
| Javion Posey | Florida Atlantic | 2020 | 53 | 0.450 | 1.4 | 23.8 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsAuburn | L24-38 | 11.6 | 4 | 70 | 17.5 | 0 | 36 | 1.07 |
| 2 | @SMU | W48-45 | 13.4 | 10 | 145 | 14.5 | 0 | 28 | 1.02 |
| 3 | vsSamford | W42-7 | — | 3 | 42 | 14.0 | 0 | 36 | -0.35 |
| 4 | vsArizona State | L24-27 | 3.9 | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | -1.21 |
| 5 | @Oklahoma State | W45-27 | -15.1 | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | 8 | 0.33 |
| 6 | vsKansas State | W35-34 | 7.0 | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 | 12 | 0.20 |
| 8 | @TCU | L36-42 | 8.3 | 7 | 95 | 13.6 | 0 | 41 | 1.01 |
| 9 | @Cincinnati | L20-41 | 4.5 | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 | 15 | — |
| 10 | vsUCF | W30-3 | -1.2 | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 | 15 | -0.18 |
| 12 | vsUtah | L28-55 | 22.2 | 7 | 119 | 17.0 | 0 | 37 | 1.25 |
| 13 | @Arizona | L17-41 | 12.0 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 | 2.65 |
| 14 | vsHouston | L24-31 | 7.4 | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 0 | 23 | -0.04 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.21
- Passing downs
- 0.91
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.50 / —
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).