#5Caleb Douglas
Caleb Douglas is a Versatile WR for Texas Tech. Caleb's 2025 season ranks in the 75th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 79 plays — a above-average rate for the WR.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the WR mean. Model correlation r≈0.47 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.
- ▸Above-average efficiency for the WR position (75th percentile).
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.15 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 1.82 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Oregon State (SP+ -16).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tyree | Notre Dame | 2020 | 76 | 0.310 | 0.6 | 23.6 |
| Malik Dunner | Ball State | 2017 | 76 | 0.290 | 0.4 | 22.0 |
| Noah Short | Army | 2024 | 69 | 0.300 | 0.5 | 20.7 |
| Eli Heidenreich | Navy | 2024 | 66 | 0.340 | 0.7 | 22.4 |
| Xavier White | Texas Tech | 2020 | 62 | 0.300 | 0.5 | 18.6 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsArkansas-Pine Bluff | W67-7 | — | 3 | 44 | 14.7 | 0 | 19 | -0.06 |
| 2 | vsKent State | W62-14 | -19.3 | 2 | 37 | 18.5 | 0 | 29 | 0.17 |
| 3 | vsOregon State | W45-14 | -15.9 | 1 | 61 | 61.0 | 1 | 61 | 1.82 |
| 4 | @Utah | W34-10 | 22.2 | 4 | 68 | 17.0 | 0 | 33 | 0.43 |
| 6 | @Houston | W35-11 | 7.4 | 7 | 114 | 16.3 | 0 | 33 | 0.56 |
| 7 | vsKansas | W42-17 | 4.1 | 6 | 55 | 9.2 | 0 | 26 | 0.28 |
| 8 | @Arizona State | L22-26 | 3.9 | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 | 7 | -0.43 |
| 9 | vsOklahoma State | W42-0 | -15.1 | 5 | 98 | 19.6 | 1 | 42 | — |
| 10 | @Kansas State | W43-20 | 7.0 | 8 | 82 | 10.3 | 2 | 26 | 0.46 |
| 11 | vsBYU | W29-7 | 15.9 | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 1 | 9 | 0.14 |
| 12 | vsUCF | W48-9 | -1.2 | 5 | 90 | 18.0 | 0 | 32 | 0.64 |
| 14 | @West Virginia | W49-0 | -6.8 | 5 | 127 | 25.4 | 2 | 50 | 1.35 |
| 15 | vsBYU | W34-7 | 15.9 | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 | 23 | -0.70 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- -0.07
- Passing downs
- 0.88
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.34 / —
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).