Cayden Lee is a Slot Specialist WR for Ole Miss. Cayden's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 58 plays — a elite rate for the WR.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the WR mean. Model correlation r≈0.47 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸11 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.56 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 2.25 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Georgia (SP+ 24).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quadree Henderson | Pittsburgh | 2016 | 63 | 0.530 | 1.6 | 33.4 |
| DeAndre Hughes | Air Force | 2021 | 60 | 0.470 | 1.3 | 28.2 |
| Keytaon Thompson | Mississippi State | 2017 | 70 | 0.460 | 1.2 | 32.2 |
| Savion Williams | TCU | 2024 | 56 | 0.450 | 1.1 | 25.2 |
| Javion Posey | Florida Atlantic | 2020 | 53 | 0.450 | 1.4 | 23.8 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsGeorgia State | W63-7 | -24.5 | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 9 | -0.03 |
| 2 | @Kentucky | W30-23 | 1.8 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 | -0.28 |
| 3 | vsArkansas | W41-35 | 5.1 | 3 | 75 | 25.0 | 0 | 62 | 0.90 |
| 4 | vsTulane | W45-10 | 6.3 | 2 | 60 | 30.0 | 0 | 47 | 1.52 |
| 5 | vsLSU | W24-19 | 10.3 | 4 | 70 | 17.5 | 1 | 32 | 0.76 |
| 7 | vsWashington State | W24-21 | 3.8 | 3 | 56 | 18.7 | 1 | 35 | 1.73 |
| 8 | @Georgia | L35-43 | 24.1 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 | 2.25 |
| 9 | @Oklahoma | W34-26 | 18.3 | 3 | 60 | 20.0 | 0 | 31 | 1.41 |
| 10 | vsSouth Carolina | W30-14 | 5.9 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 10 | -0.17 |
| 11 | vsThe Citadel | W49-0 | — | 2 | 53 | 26.5 | 1 | 31 | 0.29 |
| 12 | vsFlorida | W34-24 | 3.5 | 4 | 48 | 12.0 | 0 | 19 | 0.41 |
| 14 | @Mississippi State | W38-19 | 4.1 | 7 | 77 | 11.0 | 0 | 21 | 0.47 |
| 1 | vsGeorgia | W39-34 | 24.1 | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 | 12 | 0.65 |
| 1 | vsMiami | L27-31 | 20.7 | 5 | 67 | 13.4 | 0 | 23 | 0.65 |
| 1 | vsTulane | W41-10 | 6.3 | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | 8 | 0.65 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.56
- Passing downs
- 0.64
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.59 / —
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).