#1Chris Dawn Jr.
Chris Dawn Jr. is a Versatile WR for Texas State. Chris's 2025 season produced 29.4 total EPA across 42 plays.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the WR mean. Model correlation r≈0.47 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Peak game: 4.01 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs UTSA (SP+ 4).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quadree Henderson | Pittsburgh | 2016 | 63 | 0.530 | 1.6 | 33.4 |
| DeAndre Hughes | Air Force | 2021 | 60 | 0.470 | 1.3 | 28.2 |
| Keytaon Thompson | Mississippi State | 2017 | 70 | 0.460 | 1.2 | 32.2 |
| Savion Williams | TCU | 2024 | 56 | 0.450 | 1.1 | 25.2 |
| Javion Posey | Florida Atlantic | 2020 | 53 | 0.450 | 1.4 | 23.8 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsEastern Michigan | W52-27 | -14.7 | 5 | 50 | 10.0 | 0 | 21 | 0.07 |
| 2 | @UTSA | W43-36 | 3.7 | 2 | 109 | 54.5 | 0 | 56 | 4.01 |
| 3 | @Arizona State | L15-34 | 3.9 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | -0.61 |
| 6 | @Arkansas State | L30-31 | -8.8 | 5 | 46 | 9.2 | 0 | 24 | -0.19 |
| 7 | vsTroy | L41-48 | -4.8 | 7 | 119 | 17.0 | 0 | 35 | 1.32 |
| 8 | @Marshall | L37-40 | -4.5 | 5 | 180 | 36.0 | 0 | 66 | 0.85 |
| 10 | vsJames Madison | L20-52 | 12.3 | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 11 | @Louisiana | L39-42 | -10.1 | 7 | 89 | 12.7 | 1 | 40 | — |
| 12 | @Southern Miss | W41-14 | -7.1 | 5 | 117 | 23.4 | 1 | 82 | — |
| 13 | vsUL Monroe | W31-14 | -21.6 | 7 | 60 | 8.6 | 0 | 16 | — |
| 14 | vsSouth Alabama | W49-26 | -12.7 | 8 | 154 | 19.3 | 0 | 48 | — |
| 1 | vsRice | W41-10 | -14.8 | 11 | 76 | 6.9 | 2 | 15 | 0.07 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.56
- Passing downs
- 0.92
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.80 / -1.24
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).