#9Elijah Metcalf
Elijah Metcalf is a Versatile WR for Southern Miss. Elijah's 2025 season ranks in the 88th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 72 plays — a above-average rate for the WR.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the WR mean. Model correlation r≈0.47 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.
- ▸Above-average efficiency for the WR position (88th percentile).
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.17 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 1.70 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Arkansas State (SP+ -9).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Abey | Navy | 2016 | 70 | 0.370 | 0.8 | 25.9 |
| Dane Kinamon | Air Force | 2021 | 39 | 0.410 | 0.7 | 16.0 |
| Micah Davis | Air Force | 2021 | 44 | 0.370 | 0.6 | 16.3 |
| Keytaon Thompson | Virginia | 2021 | 41 | 0.370 | 0.6 | 15.2 |
| JoJo Natson | Utah State | 2014 | 51 | 0.390 | 1.0 | 19.9 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsMississippi State | L17-34 | 4.1 | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 12 | -0.30 |
| 2 | vsJackson State | W38-20 | — | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 0 | 11 | 0.84 |
| 3 | vsApp State | W38-22 | -11.4 | 3 | 66 | 22.0 | 0 | 48 | 0.91 |
| 4 | @Louisiana Tech | L20-30 | -1.3 | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 | 24 | -0.02 |
| 5 | vsJacksonville State | W42-25 | -6.7 | 2 | -9 | -4.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.07 |
| 7 | @Georgia Southern | W38-35 | -9.4 | 4 | 62 | 15.5 | 0 | 30 | 0.41 |
| 8 | @Louisiana | W22-10 | -10.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9 | vsUL Monroe | W49-21 | -21.6 | 7 | 76 | 10.9 | 0 | 30 | — |
| 11 | @Arkansas State | W27-21 | -8.8 | 5 | 143 | 28.6 | 1 | 76 | 1.70 |
| 12 | vsTexas State | L14-41 | 2.3 | 10 | 116 | 11.6 | 1 | 34 | 0.92 |
| 13 | @South Alabama | L35-42 | -12.7 | 6 | 74 | 12.3 | 0 | 32 | 0.53 |
| 14 | vsTroy | L18-28 | -4.8 | 6 | 62 | 10.3 | 0 | 26 | -0.15 |
| 1 | vsWestern Kentucky | L16-27 | 1.6 | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | 7 | -0.54 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.24
- Passing downs
- 0.72
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.44 / 0.04
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).