#12Holton Ahlers
Holton Ahlers is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for East Carolina. Holton's 2021 season ranks in the 13th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 499 plays — a developing rate for the QB.
2021 Production
Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs QB peers
A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
- ▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.17 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 0.82 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Navy (SP+ -9).
NIL Market Tier· 2021
On3 valuation ↗Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Travis | Florida State | 2021 | 690 | 0.476 | 10.1 | 328.3 |
| Stetson Bennett | Georgia | 2022 | 509 | 0.635 | 12.4 | 323.0 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | C/ATT | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | QBR | Rush Yds | Rush TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @App State | L19-33 | 10.3 | 22/40 | 295 | 2 | 1 | 54.0 | 14 | 0 | 0.24 |
| 2 | vsSouth Carolina | L17-20 | 3.9 | 11/24 | 77 | 0 | 2 | 4.2 | 4 | 1 | -0.49 |
| 3 | @Marshall | W42-38 | 8.0 | 30/48 | 368 | 2 | 0 | 76.9 | -12 | 1 | 0.48 |
| 4 | vsCharleston Southern | W31-28 | — | 17/26 | 238 | 1 | 2 | 34.1 | 4 | 0 | 0.33 |
| 5 | vsTulane | W52-29 | -3.9 | 21/32 | 288 | 2 | 0 | 85.3 | 12 | 1 | 0.50 |
| 6 | @UCF | L16-20 | 4.8 | 20/32 | 219 | 1 | 1 | 58.7 | -1 | 0 | 0.41 |
| 8 | @Houston | L24-31 | 10.9 | 23/37 | 278 | 2 | 0 | 34.1 | 5 | 1 | -0.05 |
| 9 | vsSouth Florida | W29-14 | -12.1 | 21/35 | 220 | 1 | 0 | 73.2 | 78 | 0 | 0.34 |
| 10 | vsTemple | W45-3 | -19.1 | 16/24 | 197 | 3 | 1 | 76.1 | 33 | 1 | 0.80 |
| 11 | @Memphis | W30-29 | 1.0 | 29/46 | 313 | 0 | 2 | 65.9 | 46 | 1 | 0.43 |
| 12 | @Navy | W38-35 | -8.5 | 27/32 | 405 | 3 | 0 | 97.0 | 48 | 0 | 0.82 |
| 13 | vsCincinnati | L13-35 | 21.2 | 19/38 | 228 | 1 | 1 | 35.8 | -27 | 0 | 0.12 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.28
- Passing downs
- 0.35
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.30 / 0.38
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
| Season | Team | Line value | WEPA/play | YoY Δ | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | East Carolina | 7.9 | 0.467 | — | 227.3 |
| 2021 | East Carolina | 7.1 | 0.467 | — | 238.5 |
| 2022 | East Carolina | 8.1 | 0.461 | -0.01 | 251.7 |
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.