#12Jack Velling
Jack Velling is a Versatile TE for Michigan State. Jack's 2025 season produced 25.8 total EPA across 38 plays.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the TE mean. Model correlation r≈0.42 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs TE peers
Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.34 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 2.45 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs USC (SP+ 17).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · TE · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Thompson | Tulane | 2024 | 48 | 0.420 | 0.4 | 20.2 |
| Seth Green | Minnesota | 2018 | 83 | 0.390 | 0.0 | 32.4 |
| Johnny Langan | Rutgers | 2020 | 59 | 0.300 | 0.0 | 17.7 |
| Evan Svoboda | Wyoming | 2024 | 75 | 0.290 | 0.0 | 21.8 |
| Jordan Myers | Rice | 2021 | 59 | 0.270 | 0.2 | 15.9 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsWestern Michigan | W23-6 | -1.4 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 | 1.36 |
| 3 | vsYoungstown State | W41-24 | — | 6 | 70 | 11.7 | 0 | 23 | 0.57 |
| 4 | @USC | L31-45 | 16.9 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 2.45 |
| 6 | @Nebraska | L27-38 | 6.2 | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 1 | 19 | 0.89 |
| 7 | vsUCLA | L13-38 | -8.7 | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | 9 | 0.06 |
| 8 | @Indiana | L13-38 | 32.4 | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 | 9 | -0.10 |
| 9 | vsMichigan | L20-31 | 12.4 | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 | 10 | — |
| 10 | @Minnesota | L20-23 | 1.5 | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 | 16 | 1.13 |
| 12 | vsPenn State | L10-28 | 18.1 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 | 0.33 |
| 13 | @Iowa | L17-20 | 19.7 | 8 | 88 | 11.0 | 0 | 21 | 0.75 |
| 14 | vsMaryland | W38-28 | 0.6 | 5 | 68 | 13.6 | 1 | 28 | 0.69 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.50
- Passing downs
- 1.12
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.68 / —
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).