Jaden Barnes is a Versatile WR for App State. Jaden's 2025 season ranks in the 88th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 66 plays — a above-average rate for the WR.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the WR mean. Model correlation r≈0.47 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.
- ▸Above-average efficiency for the WR position (88th percentile).
- ▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.37 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 0.86 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Southern Miss (SP+ -7).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane Kinamon | Air Force | 2021 | 39 | 0.410 | 0.7 | 16.0 |
| Zach Abey | Navy | 2016 | 70 | 0.370 | 0.8 | 25.9 |
| Micah Davis | Air Force | 2021 | 44 | 0.370 | 0.6 | 16.3 |
| Keytaon Thompson | Virginia | 2021 | 41 | 0.370 | 0.6 | 15.2 |
| JoJo Natson | Utah State | 2014 | 51 | 0.390 | 1.0 | 19.9 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsCharlotte | W34-11 | -26.7 | 6 | 134 | 22.3 | 1 | 59 | 0.78 |
| 2 | vsLindenwood | W20-13 | — | 8 | 71 | 8.9 | 1 | 21 | 0.29 |
| 3 | @Southern Miss | L22-38 | -7.1 | 10 | 132 | 13.2 | 1 | 42 | 0.86 |
| 6 | vsOregon State | W27-23 | -15.9 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 | -0.09 |
| 7 | @Georgia State | W41-20 | -24.5 | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 1 | 11 | 0.32 |
| 8 | vsCoastal Carolina | L37-45 | -15.1 | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 1 | 8 | 0.18 |
| 9 | @Old Dominion | L21-24 | 5.9 | 9 | 63 | 7.0 | 1 | 18 | — |
| 11 | vsGeorgia Southern | L23-25 | -9.4 | 13 | 160 | 12.3 | 1 | 34 | 0.54 |
| 12 | @James Madison | L10-58 | 12.3 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 | -0.44 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.28
- Passing downs
- 0.61
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.41 / —
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).