#9Jeff Caldwell
Jeff Caldwell is a Red Zone Weapon WR for Cincinnati. Jeff's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 52 plays — a elite rate for the WR.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the WR mean. Model correlation r≈0.47 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
Goes from good to great inside the 20 — high TD conversion on limited looks makes this receiver a scoring machine.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.53 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 1.82 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs UCF (SP+ -1).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quadree Henderson | Pittsburgh | 2016 | 63 | 0.530 | 1.6 | 33.4 |
| DeAndre Hughes | Air Force | 2021 | 60 | 0.470 | 1.3 | 28.2 |
| Keytaon Thompson | Mississippi State | 2017 | 70 | 0.460 | 1.2 | 32.2 |
| Savion Williams | TCU | 2024 | 56 | 0.450 | 1.1 | 25.2 |
| Javion Posey | Florida Atlantic | 2020 | 53 | 0.450 | 1.4 | 23.8 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsNebraska | L17-20 | 6.2 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 | -0.41 |
| 2 | vsBowling Green | W34-20 | -12.6 | 5 | 109 | 21.8 | 1 | 39 | 1.80 |
| 3 | vsNorthwestern State | W70-0 | — | 3 | 58 | 19.3 | 0 | 28 | 1.62 |
| 5 | @Kansas | W37-34 | 4.1 | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 | 15 | -0.08 |
| 6 | vsIowa State | W38-30 | 9.9 | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 | 21 | 0.50 |
| 7 | vsUCF | W20-11 | -1.2 | 3 | 58 | 19.3 | 2 | 40 | 1.82 |
| 8 | @Oklahoma State | W49-17 | -15.1 | 3 | 54 | 18.0 | 0 | 38 | 0.93 |
| 9 | vsBaylor | W41-20 | 1.4 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 | — |
| 10 | @Utah | L14-45 | 22.2 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 11 | -0.31 |
| 12 | vsArizona | L24-30 | 12.0 | 5 | 68 | 13.6 | 1 | 33 | 0.77 |
| 13 | vsBYU | L14-26 | 15.9 | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 1 | 19 | -0.22 |
| 14 | @TCU | L23-45 | 8.3 | 4 | 42 | 10.5 | 1 | 16 | 0.54 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.34
- Passing downs
- 0.89
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.59 / —
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).