#6Keagan Johnson
Keagan Johnson is a Slot Specialist WR for New Mexico. Keagan's 2025 season ranks in the 88th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 82 plays — a above-average rate for the WR.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the WR mean. Model correlation r≈0.47 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.
- ▸Above-average efficiency for the WR position (88th percentile).
- ▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.17 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 1.24 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs UNLV (SP+ 4).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Abey | Navy | 2016 | 70 | 0.370 | 0.8 | 25.9 |
| Keytaon Thompson | Mississippi State | 2017 | 70 | 0.460 | 1.2 | 32.2 |
| Savion Williams | TCU | 2024 | 56 | 0.450 | 1.1 | 25.2 |
| Dane Kinamon | Air Force | 2021 | 39 | 0.410 | 0.7 | 16.0 |
| JoJo Natson | Utah State | 2014 | 51 | 0.390 | 1.0 | 19.9 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @Michigan | L17-34 | 12.4 | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 | 14 | 0.10 |
| 2 | vsIdaho State | W32-22 | — | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 | — |
| 5 | vsNew Mexico State | W38-20 | -15.5 | 5 | 117 | 23.4 | 1 | 48 | 1.05 |
| 6 | @San José State | L28-35 | -14.3 | 11 | 145 | 13.2 | 0 | 24 | 0.61 |
| 7 | @Boise State | L25-41 | 3.1 | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 1 | 21 | -0.13 |
| 8 | vsNevada | W24-22 | -13.4 | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 | 10 | -0.19 |
| 9 | vsUtah State | W33-14 | -3.1 | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 | 16 | — |
| 10 | @UNLV | W40-35 | 4.3 | 6 | 158 | 26.3 | 1 | 80 | 1.24 |
| 12 | vsColorado State | W20-17 | -15.6 | 5 | 65 | 13.0 | 0 | 25 | 0.46 |
| 13 | @Air Force | W20-3 | -3.2 | 4 | 55 | 13.8 | 0 | 20 | 0.18 |
| 14 | vsSan Diego State | W23-17 | 6.7 | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 0 | 17 | 0.35 |
| 1 | vsMinnesota | L17-20 | 1.5 | 4 | 42 | 10.5 | 0 | 16 | 0.10 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.32
- Passing downs
- 0.57
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.45 / 0.00
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).