#1Leland Smith
Leland Smith is a Versatile WR for San José State. Leland's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 73 plays — a elite rate for the WR.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the WR mean. Model correlation r≈0.47 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.10 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 1.17 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Air Force (SP+ -3).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keytaon Thompson | Mississippi State | 2017 | 70 | 0.460 | 1.2 | 32.2 |
| Savion Williams | TCU | 2024 | 56 | 0.450 | 1.1 | 25.2 |
| DeAndre Hughes | Air Force | 2021 | 60 | 0.470 | 1.3 | 28.2 |
| Dane Kinamon | Air Force | 2021 | 39 | 0.410 | 0.7 | 16.0 |
| Javion Posey | Florida Atlantic | 2020 | 53 | 0.450 | 1.4 | 23.8 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsCentral Michigan | L14-16 | -8.8 | 2 | 50 | 25.0 | 1 | 39 | -0.00 |
| 4 | vsIdaho | W31-28 | — | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | 9 | -0.06 |
| 5 | @Stanford | L29-30 | -11.8 | 6 | 101 | 16.8 | 0 | 37 | 0.35 |
| 6 | vsNew Mexico | W35-28 | 0.9 | 6 | 61 | 10.2 | 1 | 16 | 0.71 |
| 7 | @Wyoming | L28-35 | -11.3 | 4 | 48 | 12.0 | 0 | 19 | 0.79 |
| 8 | @Utah State | L25-30 | -3.1 | 4 | 116 | 29.0 | 1 | 45 | 0.69 |
| 10 | vsHawai'i | W45-38 | 1.7 | 4 | 113 | 28.3 | 0 | 42 | 0.72 |
| 11 | vsAir Force | L16-26 | -3.2 | 9 | 144 | 16.0 | 0 | 36 | 1.17 |
| 12 | @Nevada | L10-55 | -13.4 | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | 8 | -0.38 |
| 13 | @San Diego State | L3-25 | 6.7 | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 | 11 | 0.25 |
| 14 | vsFresno State | L14-41 | 1.8 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 | -0.45 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.56
- Passing downs
- 0.40
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.50 / —
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).