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Mac Jones

#10Mac Jones

Line value
19.2 pts
NFL Draft Outlook1st Round· model estimate based on position rank

Mac Jones is a Dual-Threat QB for Alabama. Mac's 2020 season ranks in the 98th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 401 plays — a elite rate for the QB.

2020 Production

Passing
311/402 Comp/Att4500 Pass yards41 Pass TD4 INT77.4% Comp %
Rushing
16 Rush yards1 Rush TD35 Carries0.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

EfficiencyVolumeDual-ThreatConsistencyClutch
Player type
Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)98th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency93th %ile · elite
Key findings
  • Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
  • High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • 13 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • Peak game: 0.95 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Texas A&M (SP+ 16).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

PlayerTeamYrPlaysWEPA/playLine valTotal EPA
Jayden DanielsLSU20234610.78317.5360.8
C.J. StroudOhio State20224760.74617.5355.2
Dillon GabrielOklahoma20234730.73216.1346.4
Baker MayfieldOklahoma20164840.85422.5413.2
C.J. StroudOhio State20214930.89022.4438.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

Wk 4 vs Missouri: +0.76 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Texas A&M: +0.95 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Ole Miss: +0.88 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs Georgia: +0.64 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Tennessee: +0.54 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Mississippi State: +0.51 EPA/play9Wk 12 vs Kentucky: +0.52 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Auburn: +0.83 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs LSU: +0.77 EPA/play14Wk 15 vs Arkansas: +0.43 EPA/play15Wk 16 vs Florida: +0.52 EPA/play16Wk 1 vs Notre Dame: +0.75 EPA/play1Wk 1 vs Ohio State: +0.75 EPA/play1
EPA per play, by weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+C/ATTPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDEPA/play
4@MissouriW38-19-1.018/2424920400.76
5vsTexas A&MW52-2416.220/2743541-200.95
6@Ole MissW63-484.828/3241720100.88
7vsGeorgiaW41-2419.124/3241741-2000.64
8@TennesseeW48-170.925/3138700410.54
9vsMississippi StateW41-0-1.424/3129140600.51
12vsKentuckyW63-32.216/24230210.52
13vsAuburnW42-1312.618/2630250600.83
14@LSUW55-176.020/28385400.77
15@ArkansasW52-31.624/2920800200.43
16vsFloridaW52-4619.833/4341851-800.52
1vsNotre DameW31-1421.025/30297401200.75
1vsOhio StateW52-2428.436/45464501100.75

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
48.8%
Passing plays
93.7%
Rushing plays
5.3%
Standard downs
45.4%
Passing downs
59.9%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.54
Passing downs
1.19
Pass / Rush EPA
0.72 / 0.56

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg
2020 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.