Makai Lemon is a Slot Specialist WR for USC. Makai's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 110 plays — a elite rate for the WR.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the WR mean. Model correlation r≈0.47 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.65 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 2.00 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Georgia Southern (SP+ -9).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quadree Henderson | Pittsburgh | 2016 | 63 | 0.530 | 1.6 | 33.4 |
| Keytaon Thompson | Mississippi State | 2017 | 70 | 0.460 | 1.2 | 32.2 |
| DeAndre Hughes | Air Force | 2021 | 60 | 0.470 | 1.3 | 28.2 |
| Savion Williams | TCU | 2024 | 56 | 0.450 | 1.1 | 25.2 |
| Javion Posey | Florida Atlantic | 2020 | 53 | 0.450 | 1.4 | 23.8 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsMissouri State | W73-13 | -10.7 | 7 | 90 | 12.9 | 0 | 26 | 0.79 |
| 2 | vsGeorgia Southern | W59-20 | -9.4 | 4 | 158 | 39.5 | 2 | 74 | 2.00 |
| 3 | @Purdue | W33-17 | -6.1 | 5 | 63 | 12.6 | 0 | 21 | 0.27 |
| 4 | vsMichigan State | W45-31 | -3.4 | 8 | 127 | 15.9 | 1 | 40 | 1.12 |
| 5 | @Illinois | L32-34 | 12.9 | 11 | 151 | 13.7 | 2 | 29 | 0.83 |
| 7 | vsMichigan | W31-13 | 12.4 | 9 | 93 | 10.3 | 1 | 28 | 0.56 |
| 8 | @Notre Dame | L24-34 | 24.4 | 4 | 76 | 19.0 | 0 | 42 | 0.27 |
| 10 | @Nebraska | W21-17 | 6.2 | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | 16 | -0.05 |
| 11 | vsNorthwestern | W38-17 | 5.8 | 11 | 161 | 14.6 | 1 | 52 | 0.43 |
| 12 | vsIowa | W26-21 | 19.7 | 10 | 153 | 15.3 | 1 | 35 | 0.80 |
| 13 | @Oregon | L27-42 | 25.9 | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 2 | 9 | -0.25 |
| 14 | vsUCLA | W29-10 | -8.7 | 1 | 32 | 32.0 | 1 | 32 | 0.51 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.57
- Passing downs
- 0.59
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.64 / -0.53
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).