Mike Matthews is a Versatile WR for Tennessee. Mike's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 67 plays — a elite rate for the WR.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the WR mean. Model correlation r≈0.47 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.13 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 1.44 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Illinois (SP+ 13).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quadree Henderson | Pittsburgh | 2016 | 63 | 0.530 | 1.6 | 33.4 |
| DeAndre Hughes | Air Force | 2021 | 60 | 0.470 | 1.3 | 28.2 |
| Keytaon Thompson | Mississippi State | 2017 | 70 | 0.460 | 1.2 | 32.2 |
| Savion Williams | TCU | 2024 | 56 | 0.450 | 1.1 | 25.2 |
| Javion Posey | Florida Atlantic | 2020 | 53 | 0.450 | 1.4 | 23.8 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsSyracuse | W45-26 | -13.1 | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 | 16 | -0.22 |
| 2 | vsEast Tennessee State | W72-17 | — | 6 | 111 | 18.5 | 1 | 53 | 1.35 |
| 3 | vsGeorgia | L41-44 | 24.1 | 5 | 59 | 11.8 | 0 | 21 | 0.82 |
| 4 | vsUAB | W56-24 | -15.8 | 3 | 53 | 17.7 | 1 | 39 | 0.49 |
| 5 | @Mississippi State | W41-34 | 4.1 | 6 | 118 | 19.7 | 0 | 39 | 0.98 |
| 7 | vsArkansas | W34-31 | 5.1 | 3 | 46 | 15.3 | 0 | 27 | 0.49 |
| 8 | @Alabama | L20-37 | 14.8 | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 0 | 18 | 0.13 |
| 9 | @Kentucky | W56-34 | 1.8 | 6 | 107 | 17.8 | 1 | 62 | — |
| 10 | vsOklahoma | L27-33 | 18.3 | 3 | 76 | 25.3 | 1 | 37 | 0.67 |
| 12 | vsNew Mexico State | W42-9 | -15.5 | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 | 19 | 0.15 |
| 13 | @Florida | W31-11 | 3.5 | 3 | 45 | 15.0 | 0 | 21 | 1.01 |
| 14 | vsVanderbilt | L24-45 | 20.3 | 6 | 58 | 9.7 | 0 | 18 | 0.61 |
| 1 | vsIllinois | L28-30 | 12.9 | 3 | 43 | 14.3 | 0 | 17 | 1.44 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.59
- Passing downs
- 0.88
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.66 / 0.48
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).