Nik McMillan is a Versatile WR for Buffalo. Nik's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 82 plays — a elite rate for the WR.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the WR mean. Model correlation r≈0.47 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.58 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 1.50 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Ohio (SP+ -4).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keytaon Thompson | Mississippi State | 2017 | 70 | 0.460 | 1.2 | 32.2 |
| Savion Williams | TCU | 2024 | 56 | 0.450 | 1.1 | 25.2 |
| DeAndre Hughes | Air Force | 2021 | 60 | 0.470 | 1.3 | 28.2 |
| Quadree Henderson | Pittsburgh | 2016 | 63 | 0.530 | 1.6 | 33.4 |
| Javion Posey | Florida Atlantic | 2020 | 53 | 0.450 | 1.4 | 23.8 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @Minnesota | L10-23 | 1.5 | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 | 11 | 0.27 |
| 2 | vsSt. Francis (PA) | W45-6 | — | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | 11 | -0.16 |
| 3 | @Kent State | W31-28 | -19.3 | 6 | 111 | 18.5 | 1 | 38 | 1.15 |
| 4 | vsTroy | L17-21 | -4.8 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 | -0.23 |
| 5 | vsUConn | L17-20 | 5.1 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 6 | -0.15 |
| 6 | vsEastern Michigan | W31-30 | -14.7 | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 | 18 | 0.11 |
| 8 | @Massachusetts | W28-21 | -36.6 | 10 | 119 | 11.9 | 0 | 22 | 0.38 |
| 9 | vsAkron | L16-24 | -13.9 | 8 | 177 | 22.1 | 0 | 52 | — |
| 10 | @Bowling Green | W28-3 | -12.6 | 8 | 105 | 13.1 | 0 | 39 | 0.70 |
| 12 | @Central Michigan | L19-38 | -8.8 | 7 | 122 | 17.4 | 2 | 55 | 0.26 |
| 13 | vsMiami (OH) | L20-37 | -3.4 | 8 | 147 | 18.4 | 0 | 41 | 0.88 |
| 14 | vsOhio | L26-31 | -4.0 | 5 | 122 | 24.4 | 0 | 46 | 1.50 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.39
- Passing downs
- 0.73
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.51 / —
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).