North Carolina Tar Heels
ACC··0-0
0 followers
Elo
1320
#100
SP+
-6.6
#91
O123/D58
FPI
-5.9
SRS
-6.7
AP
NR
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 11 to play2.0 – 9.0
projected final record (now 0–0)
Exp. wins left
2.0
of 11 games
Bowl odds
0%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
72%
vs Syracuse
Toughest
1%
vs Notre Dame
💬North Carolina Board
Show discussion →Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Offense
Total yards / game
289.1#131
Yards / play
4.9#120
Passing yards / game
183.9#111
Rushing yards / game
105.2#123
First downs / game
16.6#128
3rd down %
36.9%#94
4th down %
73.3%#5
Time of possession
28:25#113
Defense
Yards allowed / game
336.6#38
Yards / play allowed
4.9#25
Pass yards allowed / game
211.3#53
Rush yards allowed / game
125.3#33
3rd down % allowed
42.4%#103
Sacks
31#31
Tackles for loss
61#97
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
-3#86
Takeaways
12#106
Giveaways
15#48
Penalties / game
6.6#87
Penalty yards / game
62.6#111
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Advanced analytics
Opponent-adjusted advanced stats aren't available for 2026 yet — they populate a few weeks into the season.
Schedule & Results
2026 Recruiting Class
Commits
26
Avg stars
3.50
Avg rating
0.8891
13 4★13 3★
| Recruit | Pos | Stars | Rtg | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenton Dopson#127 nat'l | CB | ★★★★★ | 0.9454 | Miami, FL |
| Jakob Weatherspoon#142 nat'l | S | ★★★★★ | 0.9405 | Avon, OH |
| CJ Sadler#162 nat'l | ATH | ★★★★★ | 0.9321 | Detroit, MI |
| Keeyun Chapman#180 nat'l | WR | ★★★★★ | 0.9281 | Jackson, AL |
| Travis Burgess#231 nat'l | QB | ★★★★★ | 0.9183 | Loganville, GA |
| Vodney Cleveland#243 nat'l | DL | ★★★★★ | 0.9149 | Birmingham, AL |
| Duyon Forkpa Jr.#272 nat'l | LB | ★★★★★ | 0.9097 | Baltimore, MD |
| Calvin Thomas#273 nat'l | LB | ★★★★★ | 0.9097 | Cypress, TX |
| J.B. Shabazz#369 nat'l | OT | ★★★★★ | 0.8986 | Kernersville, NC |
| Carnell Warren#407 nat'l | WR | ★★★★★ | 0.8948 | Bluffton, SC |
| David Davis#409 nat'l | ATH | ★★★★★ | 0.8944 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| Trashawn Ruffin#419 nat'l | DL | ★★★★★ | 0.8940 | Mt. Olive, NC |
| Da'Ron Parks#436 nat'l | IOL | ★★★★★ | 0.8926 | Nitro, WV |
| Zavion Griffin-Haynes#463 nat'l | EDGE | ★★★★★ | 0.8900 | Rolesville, NC |
| Jaziel Hart#603 nat'l | CB | ★★★★★ | 0.8833 | Roanoke, VA |
| Julian Peterson#603 nat'l | CB | ★★★★★ | 0.8833 | Atco, NJ |
| Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-Suliafu#594 nat'l | DL | ★★★★★ | 0.8803 | Fulshear, TX |
| Carson Sneed#745 nat'l | TE | ★★★★★ | 0.8778 | Nashville, TN |
| Nyqir Helton#1158 nat'l | WR | ★★★★★ | 0.8678 | Atco, NJ |
| Aveon Williams#1125 nat'l | ATH | ★★★★★ | 0.8644 | Casa Grande, AZ |
| Dream Rashad#1396 nat'l | TE | ★★★★★ | 0.8633 | Lawrenceville, GA |
| Jayden Griffin-Haynes#1422 nat'l | LB | ★★★★★ | 0.8622 | Rolesville, NC |
| Zamaurious Robertson#1465 nat'l | WR | ★★★★★ | 0.8611 | Dillon, SC |
| Jordan Avinger#1465 nat'l | LB | ★★★★★ | 0.8611 | Orangeburg, SC |
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 33% | 5.1 | -1.1 |
| 2024 | 6-7 | 3-5 | 46% | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 6.9 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 9-5 | 6-3 | 64% | 7.1 | +1.9 |
| 2021 | 6-7 | 4-6 | 46% | 5.8 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 8-4 | 7-3 | 67% | 8.6 | -0.6 |
| 2019 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 54% | 8.2 | -1.2 |
| 2018 | 2-9 | 1-7 | 18% | 3.6 | -1.6 |
| 2017 | 3-9 | 1-7 | 25% | 4.1 | -1.1 |
| 2016 | 8-5 | 5-3 | 62% | 8.4 | -0.4 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).