#4Bailey Zappe
Bailey Zappe is a Clutch Passer for Western Kentucky. Bailey's 2021 season ranks in the 80th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 611 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.
2021 Production
Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs QB peers
Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.
- ▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (80th percentile).
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.11 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 0.97 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs UT Martin.
NIL Market Tier· 2021
On3 valuation ↗Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Higgins | Louisiana Tech | 2016 | 571 | 0.586 | 13.7 | 334.6 |
| J.T. Barrett | Ohio State | 2017 | 576 | 0.593 | 14.1 | 341.6 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Washington | 2023 | 588 | 0.650 | 14.2 | 382.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | Oklahoma | 2015 | 577 | 0.561 | 14.1 | 323.7 |
| Trace McSorley | Penn State | 2017 | 626 | 0.513 | 12.7 | 321.0 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | C/ATT | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | QBR | Rush Yds | Rush TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsUT Martin | W59-21 | — | 28/35 | 424 | 7 | 1 | 92.1 | 24 | 0 | 0.97 |
| 2 | @Army | L35-38 | 4.7 | 28/40 | 435 | 3 | 1 | 78.8 | 7 | 1 | 0.52 |
| 4 | vsIndiana | L31-33 | -7.8 | 31/44 | 365 | 3 | 0 | 84.6 | 6 | 0 | 0.53 |
| 5 | @Michigan State | L31-48 | 11.2 | 46/64 | 488 | 3 | 0 | 66.6 | -17 | 0 | 0.32 |
| 6 | vsUTSA | L46-52 | 6.5 | 38/60 | 523 | 5 | 1 | 72.5 | 2 | 0 | 0.39 |
| 7 | @Old Dominion | W43-20 | -7.4 | 36/54 | 397 | 5 | 1 | 78.5 | 8 | 0 | 0.40 |
| 8 | @Florida International | W34-19 | -21.6 | 39/49 | 382 | 3 | 0 | 57.9 | -7 | 0 | 0.44 |
| 9 | vsCharlotte | W45-13 | -13.7 | 33/45 | 393 | 4 | 2 | 81.7 | 13 | 1 | — |
| 10 | vsMiddle Tennessee | W48-21 | -4.0 | 29/50 | 281 | 4 | 0 | 64.6 | -6 | 1 | 0.27 |
| 11 | @Rice | W42-21 | -22.9 | 34/42 | 482 | 5 | 1 | 88.9 | -5 | 0 | — |
| 12 | vsFlorida Atlantic | W52-17 | -5.2 | 39/49 | 470 | 6 | 2 | 90.2 | 3 | 0 | 0.48 |
| 13 | @Marshall | W53-21 | 8.0 | 25/48 | 328 | 4 | 0 | 50.6 | -11 | 0 | 0.16 |
| 14 | @UTSA | L41-49 | 6.5 | 36/59 | 577 | 4 | 2 | 84.8 | 5 | 0 | 0.51 |
| 1 | vsApp State | W59-38 | 10.3 | 33/47 | 422 | 6 | 0 | 92.7 | -5 | 0 | 0.57 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.31
- Passing downs
- 0.79
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.48 / 0.01
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.