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NFL Draft OutlookDay 3 (Rds 4–7)· model estimate based on position rank
Tommy Armstrong Jr. is a 3-year Clutch Passer for Nebraska. Tommy's 2014 season ranks in the 18th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 463 plays — a developing rate for the QB. Tommy's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.
2014 Production
Passing
184/345 Comp/Att2695 Pass yards22 Pass TD12 INT53.3% Comp %
Rushing
705 Rush yards6 Rush TD145 Carries4.9 Yards/carry
Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers
Player type
Clutch Passer
Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.
3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)18th %ile · below avg
Game-to-game consistency65th %ile · average
Career trajectory:↑ Rising
Key findings
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
- ▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
- ▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.28 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 0.80 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Fresno State (SP+ -7).
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
EPA per play, by weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | C/ATT | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | QBR | Rush Yds | Rush TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsFlorida Atlantic | W55-7 | -10.4 | 15/29 | 271 | 2 | 0 | 95.7 | 62 | 1 | 0.49 |
| 2 | vsMcNeese | W31-24 | — | 16/31 | 242 | 2 | 1 | 78.1 | 131 | 1 | 0.22 |
| 3 | @Fresno State | W55-19 | -6.9 | 12/21 | 260 | 3 | 0 | 78.6 | 65 | 0 | 0.80 |
| 4 | vsMiami | W41-31 | 13.9 | 9/13 | 113 | 2 | 1 | 66.6 | 96 | 0 | 0.43 |
| 5 | vsIllinois | W45-14 | 0.4 | 10/21 | 166 | 1 | 1 | 68.0 | 66 | 0 | 0.42 |
| 6 | @Michigan State | L22-27 | 24.1 | 20/43 | 273 | 0 | 2 | 11.6 | 7 | 0 | -0.08 |
| 8 | @Northwestern | W38-17 | 1.5 | 18/29 | 221 | 0 | 0 | 79.3 | 55 | 0 | 0.32 |
| 9 | vsRutgers | W42-24 | -1.5 | 14/22 | 163 | 2 | 1 | 74.0 | 19 | 1 | 0.52 |
| 10 | vsPurdue | W35-14 | -6.2 | 8/21 | 118 | 1 | 2 | 11.2 | 70 | 1 | -0.17 |
| 12 | @Wisconsin | L24-59 | 20.8 | 6/18 | 62 | 1 | 1 | 12.7 | 17 | 1 | -0.21 |
| 13 | vsMinnesota | L24-28 | 6.8 | 12/19 | 223 | 1 | 0 | 87.0 | 45 | 0 | 0.17 |
| 14 | @Iowa | W37-34 | 6.8 | 12/27 | 202 | 4 | 2 | 44.1 | 31 | 0 | 0.02 |
| 1 | vsUSC | L42-45 | 17.1 | 32/51 | 381 | 3 | 1 | 65.6 | 41 | 1 | 0.27 |
Usage & Situational · Pro
Snap-share proxy
Overall
51.0%
Passing plays
96.3%
Rushing plays
22.4%
Standard downs
41.7%
Passing downs
72.7%
EPA by down type
- Standard downs
- 0.08
- Passing downs
- 0.38
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.24 / 0.12
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Per-game EPA5-game avg
2014 — 2016 · 36 games
| Season | Team | Line value | WEPA/play | YoY Δ | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Nebraska | 5.5 | 0.394 | — | 185.4 |
| 2015 | Nebraska | 8.6 | 0.457 | +0.06 | 239.6 |
| 2016 | Nebraska | 6.1 | 0.436 | -0.02 | 186.9 |
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.