Tommy Armstrong Jr. is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Nebraska. Tommy's 2015 season ranks in the 23th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 487 plays — a developing rate for the QB. Tommy's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.
A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stetson Bennett | Georgia | 2022 | 509 | 0.635 | 12.4 | 323.0 |
| Kyle McCord | Syracuse | 2024 | 632 | 0.509 | 12.1 | 321.4 |
| Sam Hartman | Wake Forest | 2021 | 647 | 0.556 | 11.8 | 359.6 |
| Jordan Travis | Florida State | 2021 | 690 | 0.476 | 10.1 | 328.3 |
| Trace McSorley | Penn State | 2017 | 626 | 0.513 | 12.7 | 321.0 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | C/ATT | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | QBR | Rush Yds | Rush TD | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsBYU | L28-33 | 8.7 | 24/41 | 319 | 3 | 1 | 66.5 | 2 | 0 | 0.46 |
| 2 | vsSouth Alabama | W48-9 | -10.4 | 21/30 | 270 | 2 | 0 | 87.3 | 4 | 0 | 0.52 |
| 3 | @Miami | L33-36 | 11.0 | 21/45 |
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
| Season | Team | Line value | WEPA/play | YoY Δ | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Nebraska | 5.5 | 0.394 | — | 185.4 |
| 2015 | Nebraska | 8.6 | 0.457 | +0.06 | 239.6 |
| 2016 | Nebraska | 6.1 | 0.436 | -0.02 | 186.9 |
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.
C/ATT 12/19 · Pass Yds 174 · Pass TD 1 · INT 0
| 309 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 64.0 |
| 49 |
| 0 |
| 0.17 |
| 4 | vsSouthern Miss | W36-28 | 1.4 | 23/35 | 368 | 2 | 1 | 88.6 | 63 | 1 | 0.67 |
| 5 | @Illinois | L13-14 | 2.7 | 10/31 | 105 | 0 | 1 | 14.2 | 38 | 0 | -0.25 |
| 6 | vsWisconsin | L21-23 | 15.1 | 11/28 | 129 | 1 | 0 | 62.1 | 50 | 1 | 0.20 |
| 7 | @Minnesota | W48-25 | 8.1 | 18/26 | 261 | 3 | 0 | 93.4 | 38 | 0 | 0.65 |
| 8 | vsNorthwestern | L28-30 | 0.2 | 24/48 | 291 | 1 | 1 | 46.7 | 13 | 2 | 0.07 |
| 10 | vsMichigan State | W39-38 | 15.6 | 19/33 | 320 | 2 | 2 | 67.1 | 19 | 2 | 0.35 |
| 11 | @Rutgers | W31-14 | -10.1 | 14/21 | 188 | 3 | 3 | 60.6 | 2 | 0 | 0.29 |
| 13 | vsIowa | L20-28 | 9.3 | 25/45 | 296 | 0 | 4 | 33.3 | 46 | 0 | 0.12 |
| 1 | vsUCLA | W37-29 | 18.6 | 12/19 | 174 | 1 | 0 | 78.0 | 76 | 1 | 0.48 |
