2026 Preseason Outlook
Preseason rating = last season's SP+ regressed toward the mean, nudged by returning production, recruited talent and recruiting-class strength — the weights LEARNED from 10 seasons by walk-forward, not guessed. Win totals are a Poisson-binomial over the real schedule; game randomness and rating uncertainty are both folded in.
Returning-production and preseason SP+/FPI for 2026 publish in late summer. Until then this regresses 2025 final ratings toward the mean — it will sharpen automatically when those inputs land. Honest by design: every number ships with a range, never false precision.
What's in the model — and what we tested
We tested recruiting-class strength and transfer-portal movement on top of the base (last-year rating + returning production + talent). Recruiting IMPROVED the backtest (8.06→7.90 rating RMSE) and is included; the transfer portal did NOT add signal beyond talent + recruiting (8.07 RMSE) and is honestly left out.
| Feature set tested | Corr | RMSE |
|---|---|---|
| base (carry+ret+talent) | 0.785 | 8.06 |
| + recruiting ✓ chosen | 0.793 | 7.90 |
| + portal | 0.784 | 8.07 |
| + recruiting + portal | 0.792 | 7.91 |
| # | Team | Outlook | Rating | Projected wins | Proj | '25 SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 |  San Diego State | Bowl team | +1.6±7.9 | 5 9 | 7 | +6.7 |
| 57 |  UNLV | Bowl team | +0.1±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.7 | +4.3 |
| 64 |  Boise State | Bowl team | -0.7±7.9 | 5 8 | 6.2 | +3.1 |
| 66 |  Fresno State | Bowl team | -1.5±7.9 | 5 8 | 6.4 | +1.8 |
| 68 |  Hawai'i | Bowl team | -1.5±7.9 | 7 10 | 8.2 | +1.7 |
| 73 |  New Mexico | Bowl team | -2±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.7 | +0.9 |
| 79 |  Utah State | Bubble | -4.5±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.2 | -3.1 |
| 81 |  Air Force | Bowl team | -4.6±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.1 | -3.2 |
| 110 |  Wyoming | Bubble | -9.6±7.9 | 4 8 | 6 | -11.3 |
| 116 |  Nevada | Bubble | -10.9±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.8 | -13.4 |
| 118 |  San José State | Bubble | -11.5±7.9 | 4 8 | 5.8 | -14.3 |
| 124 |  Colorado State | Rebuild | -12.3±7.9 | 2 5 | 3.8 | -15.6 |
Method: next-season rating is last year's SP+ regressed toward the mean (carryover 62%, learned from 2019+), plus returning production and recruited talent when published. Win totals are a Poisson-binomial over the real 2026 schedule with game randomness and rating uncertainty both folded in — so the range is the believable band of outcomes, not a guarantee. Backtest is strictly walk-forward (fit on prior seasons only). This is a season-level outlook, not a per-game spread. Source: CollegeFootballData (SP+, returning production, talent, schedule).