2026 Preseason Outlook
Preseason rating = last season's SP+ regressed toward the mean, nudged by returning production, recruited talent and recruiting-class strength — the weights LEARNED from 10 seasons by walk-forward, not guessed. Win totals are a Poisson-binomial over the real schedule; game randomness and rating uncertainty are both folded in.
Returning-production and preseason SP+/FPI for 2026 publish in late summer. Until then this regresses 2025 final ratings toward the mean — it will sharpen automatically when those inputs land. Honest by design: every number ships with a range, never false precision.
What's in the model — and what we tested
We tested recruiting-class strength and transfer-portal movement on top of the base (last-year rating + returning production + talent). Recruiting IMPROVED the backtest (8.06→7.90 rating RMSE) and is included; the transfer portal did NOT add signal beyond talent + recruiting (8.07 RMSE) and is honestly left out.
| Feature set tested | Corr | RMSE |
|---|---|---|
| base (carry+ret+talent) | 0.785 | 8.06 |
| + recruiting ✓ chosen | 0.793 | 7.90 |
| + portal | 0.784 | 8.07 |
| + recruiting + portal | 0.792 | 7.91 |
| # | Team | Outlook | Rating | Projected wins | Proj | '25 SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48 |  Toledo | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +1.1±7.9 | 7 10 | 8.9 | +6 |
| 78 |  Western Michigan | Bowl team | -3.5±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.2 | -1.4 |
| 83 |  Miami (OH) | Bowl team | -4.7±7.9 | 5 9 | 7 | -3.4 |
| 84 |  Ohio | Bowl team | -5.1±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.4 | -4 |
| 95 |  Buffalo | Bowl team | -7.3±7.9 | 5 8 | 6.9 | -7.5 |
| 101 |  Central Michigan | Bubble | -8.1±7.9 | 5 8 | 6.4 | -8.8 |
| 113 |  Bowling Green | Bubble | -10.4±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.8 | -12.6 |
| 117 |  Akron | Bubble | -11.2±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.4 | -13.9 |
| 119 |  Eastern Michigan | Bubble | -11.7±7.9 | 4 8 | 5.9 | -14.7 |
| 128 |  Northern Illinois | Bubble | -13±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.1 | -16.7 |
| 130 |  Kent State | Rebuild | -14.6±7.9 | 3 6 | 4.6 | -19.3 |
| 132 |  Ball State | Rebuild | -16.9±7.9 | 3 6 | 4.4 | -23 |
| 136 |  Massachusetts | Rebuild | -25.3±7.9 | 2 5 | 3.4 | -36.6 |
Method: next-season rating is last year's SP+ regressed toward the mean (carryover 62%, learned from 2019+), plus returning production and recruited talent when published. Win totals are a Poisson-binomial over the real 2026 schedule with game randomness and rating uncertainty both folded in — so the range is the believable band of outcomes, not a guarantee. Backtest is strictly walk-forward (fit on prior seasons only). This is a season-level outlook, not a per-game spread. Source: CollegeFootballData (SP+, returning production, talent, schedule).