2026 Preseason Outlook
Preseason rating = last season's SP+ regressed toward the mean, nudged by returning production, recruited talent and recruiting-class strength — the weights LEARNED from 10 seasons by walk-forward, not guessed. Win totals are a Poisson-binomial over the real schedule; game randomness and rating uncertainty are both folded in.
Returning-production and preseason SP+/FPI for 2026 publish in late summer. Until then this regresses 2025 final ratings toward the mean — it will sharpen automatically when those inputs land. Honest by design: every number ships with a range, never false precision.
What's in the model — and what we tested
We tested recruiting-class strength and transfer-portal movement on top of the base (last-year rating + returning production + talent). Recruiting IMPROVED the backtest (8.06→7.90 rating RMSE) and is included; the transfer portal did NOT add signal beyond talent + recruiting (8.07 RMSE) and is honestly left out.
| Feature set tested | Corr | RMSE |
|---|---|---|
| base (carry+ret+talent) | 0.785 | 8.06 |
| + recruiting ✓ chosen | 0.793 | 7.90 |
| + portal | 0.784 | 8.07 |
| + recruiting + portal | 0.792 | 7.91 |
| # | Team | Outlook | Rating | Projected wins | Proj | '25 SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 |  Miami | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +10.2±7.9 | 8 10 | 9.1 | +20.7 |
| 23 |  SMU | Bowl team | +5.7±7.9 | 7 10 | 8.3 | +13.4 |
| 25 |  Louisville | Bowl team | +5.1±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.7 | +12.4 |
| 31 |  Virginia | Bowl team | +4.3±7.9 | 7 10 | 8.3 | +11.1 |
| 34 |  Clemson | Bowl team | +3.3±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.6 | +9.5 |
| 35 |  Georgia Tech | Bowl team | +3.2±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.3 | +9.3 |
| 37 |  Pittsburgh | Bowl team | +2.6±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.7 | +8.4 |
| 41 |  Florida State | Bubble | +1.9±7.9 | 5 8 | 6.6 | +7.2 |
| 44 |  Duke | Bowl team | +1.5±7.9 | 5 8 | 6.6 | +6.6 |
| 52 |  Wake Forest | Bowl team | +0.9±7.9 | 5 8 | 6.6 | +5.7 |
| 55 |  NC State | Bowl team | +0.4±7.9 | 5 9 | 7 | +4.8 |
| 80 |  California | Bubble | -4.6±7.9 | 4 8 | 5.9 | -3.2 |
| 91 |  North Carolina | Rebuild | -6.7±7.9 | 3 6 | 4.3 | -6.6 |
| 97 |  Boston College | Rebuild | -7.9±7.9 | 3 6 | 4.4 | -8.5 |
| 106 |  Virginia Tech | Rebuild | -8.9±7.9 | 3 6 | 4.3 | -10.1 |
| 112 |  Stanford | Rebuild | -9.9±7.9 | 2 5 | 3.7 | -11.8 |
| 115 |  Syracuse | Rebuild | -10.7±7.9 | 2 5 | 3.7 | -13.1 |
Method: next-season rating is last year's SP+ regressed toward the mean (carryover 62%, learned from 2019+), plus returning production and recruited talent when published. Win totals are a Poisson-binomial over the real 2026 schedule with game randomness and rating uncertainty both folded in — so the range is the believable band of outcomes, not a guarantee. Backtest is strictly walk-forward (fit on prior seasons only). This is a season-level outlook, not a per-game spread. Source: CollegeFootballData (SP+, returning production, talent, schedule).