2026 Preseason Outlook
Preseason rating = last season's SP+ regressed toward the mean, nudged by returning production, recruited talent and recruiting-class strength — the weights LEARNED from 10 seasons by walk-forward, not guessed. Win totals are a Poisson-binomial over the real schedule; game randomness and rating uncertainty are both folded in.
Returning-production and preseason SP+/FPI for 2026 publish in late summer. Until then this regresses 2025 final ratings toward the mean — it will sharpen automatically when those inputs land. Honest by design: every number ships with a range, never false precision.
What's in the model — and what we tested
We tested recruiting-class strength and transfer-portal movement on top of the base (last-year rating + returning production + talent). Recruiting IMPROVED the backtest (8.06→7.90 rating RMSE) and is included; the transfer portal did NOT add signal beyond talent + recruiting (8.07 RMSE) and is honestly left out.
| Feature set tested | Corr | RMSE |
|---|---|---|
| base (carry+ret+talent) | 0.785 | 8.06 |
| + recruiting ✓ chosen | 0.793 | 7.90 |
| + portal | 0.784 | 8.07 |
| + recruiting + portal | 0.792 | 7.91 |
| # | Team | Outlook | Rating | Projected wins | Proj | '25 SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 |  Georgia | Bowl team | +12.4±7.9 | 7 10 | 8.3 | +24.1 |
| 7 |  Ole Miss | Bowl team | +12.3±7.9 | 7 10 | 8.4 | +24 |
| 10 |  Texas A&M | Bowl team | +10.2±7.9 | 7 10 | 8.2 | +20.7 |
| 11 |  Vanderbilt | Bowl team | +10±7.9 | 7 10 | 8.1 | +20.3 |
| 13 |  Oklahoma | Bowl team | +8.8±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.4 | +18.3 |
| 17 |  Texas | Bowl team | +7.5±7.9 | 5 8 | 6.7 | +16.2 |
| 19 |  Tennessee | Bowl team | +6.7±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.2 | +15 |
| 20 |  Alabama | Bowl team | +6.6±7.9 | 5 9 | 7 | +14.8 |
| 21 |  Missouri | Bowl team | +6.3±7.9 | 5 9 | 7.1 | +14.4 |
| 30 |  Auburn | Bowl team | +4.6±7.9 | 5 8 | 6.6 | +11.6 |
| 32 |  LSU | Bubble | +3.8±7.9 | 5 8 | 6.4 | +10.3 |
| 50 |  South Carolina | Bubble | +1.1±7.9 | 4 8 | 6 | +5.9 |
| 53 |  Arkansas | Bubble | +0.6±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.3 | +5.1 |
| 59 |  Mississippi State | Bubble | -0.1±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.5 | +4.1 |
| 63 |  Florida | Bubble | -0.4±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.2 | +3.5 |
| 67 |  Kentucky | Bubble | -1.5±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 |
Method: next-season rating is last year's SP+ regressed toward the mean (carryover 62%, learned from 2019+), plus returning production and recruited talent when published. Win totals are a Poisson-binomial over the real 2026 schedule with game randomness and rating uncertainty both folded in — so the range is the believable band of outcomes, not a guarantee. Backtest is strictly walk-forward (fit on prior seasons only). This is a season-level outlook, not a per-game spread. Source: CollegeFootballData (SP+, returning production, talent, schedule).