2026 Preseason Outlook
Preseason rating = last season's SP+ regressed toward the mean, nudged by returning production, recruited talent and recruiting-class strength — the weights LEARNED from 10 seasons by walk-forward, not guessed. Win totals are a Poisson-binomial over the real schedule; game randomness and rating uncertainty are both folded in.
Returning-production and preseason SP+/FPI for 2026 publish in late summer. Until then this regresses 2025 final ratings toward the mean — it will sharpen automatically when those inputs land. Honest by design: every number ships with a range, never false precision.
What's in the model — and what we tested
We tested recruiting-class strength and transfer-portal movement on top of the base (last-year rating + returning production + talent). Recruiting IMPROVED the backtest (8.06→7.90 rating RMSE) and is included; the transfer portal did NOT add signal beyond talent + recruiting (8.07 RMSE) and is honestly left out.
| Feature set tested | Corr | RMSE |
|---|---|---|
| base (carry+ret+talent) | 0.785 | 8.06 |
| + recruiting ✓ chosen | 0.793 | 7.90 |
| + portal | 0.784 | 8.07 |
| + recruiting + portal | 0.792 | 7.91 |
| # | Team | Outlook | Rating | Projected wins | Proj | '25 SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 |  North Texas | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +6±7.9 | 7 10 | 8.4 | +13.8 |
| 29 |  South Florida | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +4.6±7.9 | 7 10 | 8.6 | +11.6 |
| 38 |  East Carolina | Bowl team | +2.4±7.9 | 6 10 | 8 | +8 |
| 39 |  Memphis | Bowl team | +2.1±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.6 | +7.6 |
| 45 |  Tulane | Bowl team | +1.3±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.2 | +6.3 |
| 46 |  Navy | Bowl team | +1.2±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.5 | +6.2 |
| 62 |  UTSA | Bowl team | -0.3±7.9 | 5 9 | 7 | +3.7 |
| 74 |  Army | Bowl team | -2.1±7.9 | 5 8 | 6.6 | +0.8 |
| 88 |  Temple | Bubble | -5.8±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.7 | -5.1 |
| 99 |  Florida Atlantic | Bubble | -8±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.3 | -8.7 |
| 104 |  Tulsa | Bubble | -8.8±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.7 | -10 |
| 120 |  Rice | Rebuild | -11.8±7.9 | 2 6 | 4 | -14.8 |
| 125 |  UAB | Rebuild | -12.4±7.9 | 3 6 | 4.3 | -15.8 |
| 134 |  Charlotte | Rebuild | -19.2±7.9 | 1 4 | 2.8 | -26.7 |
Method: next-season rating is last year's SP+ regressed toward the mean (carryover 62%, learned from 2019+), plus returning production and recruited talent when published. Win totals are a Poisson-binomial over the real 2026 schedule with game randomness and rating uncertainty both folded in — so the range is the believable band of outcomes, not a guarantee. Backtest is strictly walk-forward (fit on prior seasons only). This is a season-level outlook, not a per-game spread. Source: CollegeFootballData (SP+, returning production, talent, schedule).